Do you believe this?

[emprworm]

I was considering some statistics:

The odds that you will die:

[Dragoon Knight]

There are many factors that contribute to the reason as to why we don't "live as if [we] won't die today", some of which are quite obvious given due consideration.

Firstly, trying to live in a state of constantly expecting death is nigh impossible.  It would be like trying to be a true sceptic or a solipsist - either believing that nothing exists, or that nothing exists but what's inside your head.  A person can't live a proper life seriously believing these things... and by believe, I mean live by and act accordingly towards.  Likewise, if a person were to constantly think that they were about to die (in that, they accept those statistics and take them literally) then they would reason that everybody is potentially about to die (which, I believe, is what you are implying, emprworm).  Human beings simply cannot live realistically in this way.

Secondly, you must look at the figures closely.  The odds that "someone" will die today may well be over 99.999999%, but the odds that "you" will die today are miniscule.  There are around 6 billion "someone's" out there that could die, too.  You say it can't be compared to a lottery... well it can.  Everyone will win a lottery eventually; given enough time their, heh heh, number will be up.  Equally so, they could win the lottery today.  If we apply this analogy to your death example, we see that, while someone probably will die today (almost certainly, if we use your figures), the chances of it being you are still 1 in 6 billion.

Of course, you could put forth a stronger argument if you had more figures... say, the chances of 1000 people dying today are XX.X%... but as it stands, there is simply no reason to automatically assume that you are the one to die today.

Well... that's what I think, anyway. :P

[Tako]

just to bad that some are more "lucky" than others, Why are most of the good peolpe "lucky winners"?

but you have a point there, we get up in the morning and go to bad in the evening and never concider that you migth get hit with by a bus ore something like that...

maybe for the best, I would'nt leave my house at all

[Acriku]

I call it hope.

[nemafakei]

Uh...

The chances are that you will die eventually, so you make general preparations (e.g. a will) so that in case it does occur, less chaos will ensue. However, the chances are that you will not die tomorrow, so you do not waste what you could be doing today making preparations that are only useful if tomorrow is indeed the day you will die.

"Since you have no proof, and no evidence that you will live to see tomorrow, what is it that gives you the faith to believe that you wont be dead?"

Probability. There's only a one in 27,393 chance of you dying on a given day, so you are 99.996...% certain you will live tomorrow, circumstances depending.

(assuming 75-year life expectancy)

Hence

"why is it that you live as if you wont die today?"

Because it's more likely to be the case, and so what we do with the expectation of being alive tomorrow is far more likely to be more beneficial than booking a funeral service.

[emprworm]

"There's only a one in 27,393 chance of you dying on a given day, so you are 99.996...% certain you will live tomorrow, circumstances depending."

This is not correct at all!

[nemafakei]

"Automobile Accidents

Crime

Injury"

That's all part of life expectancy.

"This is not correct at all!  Are you going to tell the 70 year old that he has a one in 27,393 chance of dying"

No. Read what I said.

"circumstances depending." - you even quoted it.

Clearly, it's less likely that a 17-year old will die on that day, much more likely that a 70 year old will. I'm not offering a probability distribution, only a mean.

"Yet still faith prevails and people live as if they will be the same tomorrow, even though it is mathematically guaranteed that this faith ultimately fails"

It is mathematically guaranteed that eventually it will fail, yes, so? Doesn't mean the faith isn't well founded 99.996% of all occasions.

[Dante]

It helps to live every day not being certain that you will die, which is silly anyway since there is no such thing as true certainty, but only accepting the possibility that you will die. Let's see... Taking account of all the activities I took part in today, coupled with my thought patterns, memories, and such and such... today I contemplated my own immediate death a total of... seven or eight times. Nine, including just now. And my death in the future (as in, not immediately) a further three times. Once you accept it as one of many immediate possibilities, the future looks a lot brighter.

[Digital Guerrilla]

This is a fact of life just accept it, it has been elucidated. 

[Khan]

What you do if you knew it was your last day on Earth?

I know it's sort of off topic but it is funny how many people just answer 'dunno' if you ask them.

[VigilVirus]

Until you realize that you will die, you are useless ;) (quoted from Fight club). Basically, why does it has to matter? You die today or tomorrow or years from now. Your death will still be your death.

Die today or die tomorrow, it makes no difference.

[Megashrap]

What you do if you knew it was your last day on Earth?

Well to quote a line from an old Van Halen tune, "I live my life like there's no tomorrow".  :)

[Davidu]

Of course I'll die someday. I'm just curious what happens until that day. And what makes me go on? Life itself. You cannot just lie down and wait to die, can you? You'll get bored waiting I suppose.  ;D

[exatreide]

I will never die....Becouse their can be only one........

[Kiyouta]

I'll die reading this thread...

[HasimirFenring]

most people do not even live until 70.   

MOST people worldwide no, but now your math is far too simplistic.  Most people in the United States and Great Britain, just to name a few countries, do.

[Davidu]

The average age in France is around 82. SO they live the most. IT IS GOOD TO BE FRENCH!  ;)

[emprworm]

It is mathematically guaranteed that eventually it will fail, yes, so? Doesn't mean the faith isn't well founded 99.996% of all occasions.

without proof, thats exactly what it is:  faith.

[nemafakei]

By 'faith', what do you mean?

[GUNWOUNDS]

By 'faith', what do you mean?

Well to me its not blind faith like some will suggest.

[Caid Ivik]

Definition of a term based on subjective analysis and decision? Trust for intuition flowing trough divine illumination? Epistemology is trying to get trough this for millenia...

[Acriku]

Well to me its not blind faith like some will suggest.  To me it is a different type of faith.  Like when you "sit in a chair" faith.  You dont stop and question whether the chair will fall apart and have you fall on your back.  You simply sit in the chair without giving it another thought.  You have faith the chair will support you. You have this faith due to others telling you that it will support you and from past experiences and maybe from even reading about chairs when you were a child in books.  I liken this faith to religious faith as well.

That isn't faith, as empr describes it. You're going off of prior evidence of the chair not falling apart, therefore cannot be faith. This is not religious faith either, because countless of times I've asked people for evidence and they respond by saying that faith is all that matters, not evidence.

but the first time you sat in a chair you had no past experiences.... and even your past experiences wont guarantee that a chair wont fall apart and have you land on your back.

Same thing with your body... you trust your body.. you trust that your kidneys will keep filtering... you trust that your heart will keep beating.  I liken this faith to religious faith as well.  Its trust in its simplest form.

The first time people usually sit in a chair is when they're impressionable children that would do anything their parents told them to. That's outside the realm of faith, since faith is a conscious decision, and I highly consider little babies sitting in the chair go off of instinct rather than trust or faith.

[GUNWOUNDS]

You are also going off "prior evidence" that your body will continue to keep living.

But this "evidence" is useless and you could drop dead the next second.

Also the "evidence" you have for chairs not breaking is useless as well.... your chair could have minute fractures or cracks and it could fall apart this very second.

Therefore since the "evidence" in both cases are useless for predicting anything in either case it cannot be offered up as "evidence".. therefore there is no "evidence" to truly go off of... and therefore it is faith.

[Acriku]

You are also going off "prior evidence" that your body will continue to keep living.

But this "evidence" is useless and you could drop dead the next second.

Also the "evidence" you have for chairs not breaking is useless as well.... your chair could have minute fractures or cracks and it could fall apart this very second.

Therefore since the "evidence" in both cases are useless for predicting anything in either case it cannot be offered up as "evidence".. therefore there is no "evidence" to truly go off of... and therefore it is faith.  Because in the end all you have is trust.

Because the evidence you have is not concrete as say fingerprints on a gun.  The "evidence" you have above is merely trust.

That is a flawed argument. The fact that the chair did not break the last time you sat on it is not concrete as evidence to support that it won't break now, but that combined with the lack of any reason to think thatit would break now is all a person needs to trust that the chair will not break. This is not faith at all. Whether or not it can hold up in court of law as fingerprints would is irrelevant, people will resort to trusting that it won't break unless given a reason to think it would. There's a big difference between trust and faith. I trust that the sun will rise the next morning. I have prior evidence that it has risen every single day beforehand, and I do not have a reason that it won't rise the next morning, so rationally I can trust that the sun will rise the next morning. This isn't faith. This is trust.

[nemafakei]

"as empr describes it."

Uh... he doesn't.

"But this "evidence" is useless and you could drop dead the next second"

Just because something is not absolute, doesn't mean that it's useless. Of course you COULD drop dead this second, but, generally, it's so unlikely, it's not worth considering on a second-to-second basis, else you'll spend so much time worrying about what happens if you die that you won't get anything done and fail to prepare for the possibility that you might live.

Let us say that I can perform an action Q such that if I die tomorrow, someone who remains will lose out, but if I live, that person will benefit by the same amount (call it n).

Because (in most cases) you know it is far more likely that you will be alive tomorrow, it is logical perform Q.

The expected gain of the action (relative to not performing the action) is found as follows: