My prediction for the first nuclear war: Pakistan Vs. India

[emprworm]

Pakistan, like a 10 year old bully, is threating India with nuclear war. India, of course, will retaliate with nukes. With all the Iraq coverage, most of the media world has overlooked the harrowing situation between India and Pakistan- recently, they were closer to a nuclear war than the US Cuban Missle Crisis. Here's an interesting news piece from yahoo.

Pakistan & India on the brink of nuclear war

Lets face it, there WILL be a nuclear war someday. Its inevitable. As more and more dinky little countries start piling up nukes like bags of wheat, and the rest of the world has a 'hands off' policy about it, the time will come when, inevitably, someone launches first. It wont be Russia, US, China, UK, or France. Its going to be a 2nd/3rd world country doing it.

By spring, North Korea will have 4 more nukes. Pakistan and India continue building up their nukes.

I predict the next use of nuclear weaponry targeting human beings on this earth will come from either Pakistan on India or North Korea on South Korea- neither of which will be against the US. But it WILL happen. Someone is going to launch/drop a nuke at a human population- probably in our lifetimes.

[Edric O]

OF COURSE there will be a nuclear war between India and Pakistan. At this point it is unavoidable.

Perhaps this is what it takes to make humanity see how empty and baseless our hatreds really are... Perhaps the shock of a mass slaughter is the only thing that can open our eyes to the evil we have created...

[VigilVirus]

If a nuke is launched by a third world country, the nuclear war will probably not spread and become a global one. Unless of course, the nukes are launched at US, Russia, China or countries of Europe, for those have a lot of nuclear allies.

If North Korea nuks South, US and others will respond eliminating NK.

If Pakistan or India launch a missile, the other will respond, but it will not go far beyond those borders.

[VigilVirus]

Perhaps the shock of a mass slaughter is the only thing that can open our eyes to the evil we have created...

I doubt that anything can do that.

In an event of a nuclear launch, the retaliating country will not hesitate to launch the nukes, and then wait for the big hit, smiling a cheering, and then dying happy, knowing that their enemies are dying as well...

It is the nature of humans, and nothing can change it.

[Edric O]

For India and Pakistan, yes... but it may just wake up the rest of the world.

[Acriku]

It didn't wake us in Nagasaki or Hiroshima, why should it now? Besides, once we do 'wake up' what will we do then? Perhaps waking up to find the reality worse than the dream burrows one further into slumber...

[Edric O]

Oh yes they did. Hiroshima and Nagasaki changed human mentality completely. The horrible devastation we had caused suddenly made us aware of the power of our own weapons. For the first time in history, humans contemplated the inherent evil of war. We finally understood that we simply couldn't AFFORD a world war any more. And the result was 50 years of survival on the edge of oblivion.

Without the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we would have started World War 3.

[VigilVirus]

Hehe, isn't ironic that the most horrible and evil weapon ever created by humans (nuclear bomb) has saved us from so many wars that could have started if it was never created? ;D

[Acriku]

It seems they only woke up the world powers, not the little people.

[Edric O]

It woke up the ruling class, and that was good enough.

[TMA_1]

horrible devastation we had caused suddenly made us aware of the power of our own weapons.

Most people didnt know of how powerful nuclearweapons were until many years after the japanese attack with them. Radiation sickness grew rampent because people didnt understand the affects of what gamma radiation can do to the body till the government of america started giving out information slowely. They high up's new but not the average joe. not enough to understand a lot of the great dangers. I think that the pakistani people have many relavent angers about India. India has always trashed the pakistan people because of their religion and close racial relationship to hindu blood. Racism is rampent there. The big argument is over cashmear. The majority of people who live there are muslims, but are attackt constantly by the hindus. India in many ways is at fault. It was once controlled by the muslims but has been taken away. I personally think that the pakistani people are just trying to protectt hemselves and have a right to fight for what is theres in many ways.

[emprworm]

If a nuke is launched by a third world country, the nuclear war will probably not spread and become a global one.

i hope you are right, Vigil. I think your statement makes logical sense, but honestly, you cannot be fully predictable once a country has just had a nuclear detonation occur on its soil. if Pakistan launches first, you better believe the US and UN will somehow get invovled. Hopefully you are correct, but I feel like its only about a 75% chance you are correct.

Posted by: Edric O Posted on: Today at 13:35:04

Oh yes they did. Hiroshima and Nagasaki changed human mentality completely.

this is 100% accurate. Until Hiroshima, the nuclear bomb was a "novelty"- no one really understood its full potential to destroy human life until it actually did. Oh sure we had the "formulas on paper", but until it was actually seen, humanity really had no idea. Now that we understand its full potential (and those 2 bombs in Japan were little ones compared with today's), i think FIRST WORLD humanity has woken up. But don't think for a second that second and third world countries like Pakistan, INdia, N Korea have woken up. They are in the "nuclear novelty" stage right now - the same place we were in back in the 40's. They really have not woken up to the potential of a nuclear bomb. To them, these nukes are 'cool GI Joe toys'. Their eyes get wide with excitement. People like us who live in modern society, I believe we often confuse our understanding of Nukes with a third world countries understanding. You see we know first hand how horrible they are. We learned our lesson. Nukes are not a novelty to us. We had our wake up call. Pakistan has not.

there will be a nuclear detonation on a human population. only a question of when

[TMA_1]

goodness empr, you really are condecending to third world countries. Why cant they hold nuclear weapons? Many western nations hold them, but you seem to have no problem with that. By this you are making an inferiority of third world nations. Are they immature? no because they are human beings. Are they wrong in philosophy? yes in many ways they are dangerous. Does that give you the right to lord over nations that arent as fortunate as europe and america are? no it doesnt. All nations are equal, no matter what their stance in life and philosphy is. If they dont use their nukes against another country unless provocked, than they are ethically right. If during the cold war, russia used its ICBMs and submarine IRBM nuclear tipped weapons against us, we would probably retaliate. Why do you have to look at the western ideal as superior? Sovergn nations have a right to their own stockpiling of weapons. they are not controlled by any other nation. If they were than it would be called a dicatorship. You seem to follow all the dictators of our time. the little antichrists, as the bible says.

[VigilVirus]

It takes one phrase for a dictator to launch a nuke. It takes weeks of discussion in a democracy (unless it is a retaliation).

[emprworm]

You seem to follow all the dictators of our time. the little antichrists, as the bible says.

good grief TMA. Look, I know that everything I say, no matter what, you will take as arrogant poppycock. I understand that your thread about "ooo I know everything" was aimed directly at me. I understand that every time I issue an opinion, (even 1+1=2 ?) you will somehow go out of your way to write a post slamming me. Now, nothing you just said was against forum rules, but I will refuse to give in to your little attempts to drag me into another rage war.

Lets come to this agreement: TMA-1 hates everything emprworm says and TMA-1 will vehemently disagree with it.

Ok, now that we got that out of the way, you no longer need to go out of your way to slam my opinions.

My opinions that third world countries are ignorant to nuclear technology and its potential against human civilization is simply my opinion.

[Edric O]

Actually, I agree with Emprworm on this one. India and Pakistan, at least, have certainly NOT had their wake up call. They do not understand the true power and inherent evil of nukes. They are naive, thinking that nukes are just some other bomb you can play around with. And that will be their undoing.

[emprworm]

oh and one more thing, all this crap about me following antichrists tells me that you really have something personal against me. LOL. Get over it man.

following antichrists???!!!

Cmon dude. chill.

I'm going to go eat some potato chips now (seriously). and go chat with my friend who is here.

cool down man. its only a forum

[Anathema]

Emprworm, the 2nd world is usually a reference to the communist world, wich China belongs to ;)

Don't underestimate the fear of the "larger players", like the USA and China. They'd be stupid if they started throwing nukes at eachother if Pakistan or India start nuking eachother.

"Look, India nuked Pakistan! Let's join in the fun, and nuke the USA, and then enjoy the fallout when they respond!"

If things heat up reall bad, we probably should give both factions Patriot installations (or similar devices), who can stop almost any ballistic missiles (except ICBMS, wich are too fast), and most definitely the crummy ones India and Pakistan would have.

Bad thing with the threat of global nuclear war is, it's everything or nothing. Most nations aren't crazy enough to want everything destroyed and thus nobody wishes to cause one. But it's a pretty scary thought that a drunk Russian general will launch even a single nuke.

[emprworm]

i think that most likely you are right earthnuker- that if Pakistan and India go nuclear, that the US or its allies will not launch any nukes. But that is not to say it is out of the question. Keep in mind that if Pakistan starts nuking, India will nuke back. SOMEHOW the UN will get involved. now if the UN sides with India (most likely if pakistan strikes first), this could cause massive anger in the middle east, since pakistan is already nuking india, Israel could get involved- esp if anger in the middle east drags Israel into it. In which case, Israel will be sending out nukes- spiderweb style, throughout the middle east. Full blown nuclear war could result. of course, i think its unlikely but you never know, what might happen, once that first nuke is dropped.

[VigilVirus]

Yeah, emprworm, but most of middleast don't have nukes, so they will have nothing to respond with to Israel's attacks.

And Middle East doesn't have too much nuclear support.

[Anathema]

Maybe they will in 40 years, you can't tell. But angering them isn't even a good idea if they don't have nukes.

[emprworm]

perhaps.....

but i believe that within 10 years, the majority of the middle east will have nukes. As pakistan churns them out buffet style, their allies like Egypt, Saudi and others will probably want to get "in the club" of which Pakistan may indeed sell/supply them. Basically, once one middle eastern country starts cranking them out (Iran soon to follow), its only a few years away before they start getting distributed like a Pakistani farmer selling his crops in the market square. They all will get them soon.

[DukeLeto]

Emprworm, the 2nd world is usually a reference to the communist world, wich China belongs to ;)

Ah. (Don't want to get involved, I just always wondered what the "2nd World" was.)

[ordos45]

While as scary as this sounds, I agree with Emprwrm and Edric O. However I want to say a few things (watching the special on India and Pakistan's nuclear capabilities had to pay off sometime didn't it?).

Point One- India is trying to be careful with its nukes. It does not have a fully assembled nuclear device, but it can make them easily. The parts are stored at different high security bases throughout the country. They can have their nuclear weapons ready for deployment in three hours ideally.

Point Two- The Pakistan/India border has more than one million troops along it. How long until nuclear force is used by these rival countries?

Point Three- Hiroshima and Nagasaki changed everything. Suddenly, we had developed a weapon for which we could NOT defend against. Until now you always had the ability to defend against enemy attacks, with the advent of nuclear weapons, this was no longer the case. (Even the laws of physics were changed, as matter was indeed destroyed.) The threat of nuclear war has kept us from having another World War. Take a look at the Cold War. Soviet Union and United States, neither wanting the other alive, yet both too afraid of nuclear retaliation to strike the enemy.

(Also, saw a clip on "The Most" on the History Channel. During the Cold War the Norwegians accidently misfired a test rocket towards the Soviet Union. The Soviets believed they were under assault by the United States. They only realized this wasn't true TWO MINUTES before they would have launched a full nuclear strike.)

So yes, Hiroshima and Nagasaki woke us up in a way we'd never forget.

One last thing. While we all know Israel has nukes, I took the opportunity to search CNN.com and found a nuclear weapons map. Israel is an "Undeclared Nuclear Nation" meaning, while it has nukes, it does not publicly acknowledge this is so. (Weird isn't it? Maybe its the fear of official announcement bringing the Arab countries against it. I await, with horror, the day that a Palestinian Group that hates the Israelis acquires a nuclear device from some country on the black market.)

[TMA_1]

I dont think it will lead to nuclear war over there. We are to constricting on other nations to allow it. They know the consequences of launching a nuclear weapon. They would both be screwed. mutual assured destruction. the world is on their back too harshly to let them even use nuclear weaponry.

----- To Empr (and no I am not trying to attack you. You are just pretty uncaring and an ass because you yourself said that the 3rd world countries are ignorant of how to use nuclear weapons correctly. I dont like your opinion. so I will shoot it down as hard as I can. it is barbaric of you to have such an arrogance about western civilization.)