Kosovo close to independence

[Dunenewt]

The tiny state of Kosovo is poised to declare its independence, and will quickly be recognised by the UK, USA, and others, but Russia is not happy with this, backing Serbia in the issue.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7246809.stm

[Tatar Khan]

Russia can huff and puff but that won't change things as long as EU countries and USA recognize Kosovo , it would alright internationally. The only reason Russia is against it is because its mission lately have been to disapprove anything that came from the West. the support for Serbia comes form the idea that Balkans were always under Russian,  the idea of course rests on the fact that Russian Imperial forces helped to liberate Balkans against Turks. Not really a strong point in diplomacy overall but does strike a good stand in the Balkans.

[Caid Ivik]

The tiny state of Kosovo is poised to declare its independence, and will quickly be recognised by the UK, USA, and others, but Russia is not happy with this, backing Serbia in the issue.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7246809.stm

I guess no country in closest 500 kms from Kosovo's border won't be happy with this. This may hit hard unifying process in Bosnia, where Serbs may follow the example; same for autonomy for Albans in Macedonia, Turks in Bulgaria...and in worst case Hungarians in Vojvodina, where it involves EU directly. This may become an avalanche, which would continue further north, or north-east. About the EU stance, it is surely no problem for, let's say, Britain or Denmark, but here it is a grave issue.

[Edric O]

Caid has a point - it seems that no country anywhere near the Balkans thinks the independence of Kosovo is a good idea (by the way, does the Albanian government have a stance on this? I haven't heard anything about them). The example of Kosovo could encourage separatist groups elsewhere and spark more ethnic conflicts.

But worst of all - and the main reason I am opposed to Kosovo's independence - there is no way Kosovo could be a viable country. It has a tiny population, hardly any economy to speak of, and it depends on the EU for its defence and police.

[nemafakei]

If the majority want independence, then who are we to say no?

The only question is if the majority do want independence, or if they've just elected their preferred government. And if the majority still holds close to the border - areas where they prefer to remain with Serbia should be allowed to do so.

But sadly, we're all too trapped in the old nation-state mode of thought.

[Anathema]

If the majority want independence, then who are we to say no?

You do realize the shortcoming of this statement, right? What if the majority of people living in one house want to secede from the rest of the country?

I don't have a detailed formula for determining what size a territory should be before it can reasonably secede, but economic viability (in the long run) would be a minimum requirement. I don't see how Kosova could possibly stand on its own legs.

Of course, you might just as well argue that that's their worry and that if they want to be independent anyway, it's up to them. But somehow I get the feeling that they'll try their best to pass the bill to someone else.

[Sneakgab]

So the majority in Serbia have decided upon the independence of a small group of Serbia and their piece of territory? Basically, if Kosovo is declared independent, who would inhabit the place and become citizens of Kosovo. Would that just be everybody currently in Kosovo even if they did not support the majority of Serbians in their independence decision? lol. If the future of Kosovo's economy is so obviously non-existent, it would be surprising if many of the future citizens of Kosovo would support the independence of Kosovo. Still, tout propoganda about national identity and the like and it seems like you can convince some of almost anything.

How does Kosovo's future population match up against it's economy? It might only have 1 hectare of farmable ground and trading waypoint shack for trade between it's border neighbours but if there are only 5 people in the country thats ok.

Any numbers here? I understand that they could be difficult to obtain.

[Anathema]

Would that just be everybody currently in Kosovo even if they did not support the majority of Serbians in their independence decision?

I've read that the northern parts of Kosovo' date=' wich are predominately Serbian, already said that they would secede from Kosovo and rejoin Serbia ASAP.

The hour is drawing close now.[/color']

[nemafakei]

"If the future of Kosovo's economy is so obviously non-existent, it would be surprising if many of the future citizens of Kosovo would support the independence of Kosovo"

That depends on why it's non-existent (which it isn't). Economic viability is a major factor - though it is a relative measure.  But sometimes a region of a larger country will be made inviable by the prevailing policy of the larger country where it might be more viable on its own.

"What if the majority of people living in one house want to secede from the rest of the country?"

Of course, that's one reduction ad absurdum that demonstrates the idea of national boundaries makes no sense as a whole. Secession is a mere interim measure to deal with the worse effects of nationalism, and I'm not saying it's always a good thing, nor am I saying it's the best decision in this instance - I don't know enough about it.

[Caid Ivik]

I don't know what "sense" should a national border evoke, besides that it is one of the main pillars of international law. Someone wants to change the border? Expect war. The question isn't, whether nationalism is a factor worthy of discussion or not, but the consequences of letting one new, small mafian country a sovereignty.

[Dunenewt]

Doesn't Montenegro have a smaller population anyway?

[Dante]

Why do we care?

[Dunenewt]

Well it will start more debates over who can secede from who.  As Sergei Ivanov (Russian Defence Minister) said, a Pandora's box has been openened.  If Spain recognises Kosovo, then the Basque country will try and secede from Spain, and Russia might now force the independance of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia, and so on.

[Caid Ivik]

or Scotland from Britain, to speak of why "you" should care...

to the economic question, Kosovo is quite poor country, where majority lives in rural land from agriculture; on the other hand, Montenegro (tough not very rich as well) has few larger cities with some industry and good perspectives at least in tourism

[Edric O]

Well, Kosovo has now formally issued its unilateral declaration of independence:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7249034.stm

Yes, Montenegro has a smaller population, and Montenegro's independence was also a very bad idea, but the independence of Kosovo is worse. Montenegro doesn't have very good economic prospects on its own (indeed, its future hinges on EU membership to such an extent that the Montenegrin government didn't even bother to create a national currency and just adopted the euro instead), but Kosovo's situation is even worse. Not only is Kosovo landlocked and its economy mostly based on subsistence agriculture, but the ethnic tensions and hostile relations with Serbia won't exactly make it a good economic environment. Kosovo faces two choices: (a) remain poor, or (b) become a cheap labour colony for foreign capital. The Kosovan state is a joke - it can't even provide for its own police and defence - and therefore Kosovo will be at the mercy of foreign corporations and local mafias.

As a general rule, one large country is preferable to a collection of smaller independent countries, because the government of a large country can achieve more than the combined efforts of a collection of governments of small countries.

[Dunenewt]

It should be allowed to join Albania, but it can't due to certain rules made to appease the Russians and Serbs.  Apparently Bosnian Serbs are planning to secede and join Serbia.

I think Montenegro does have good economic prospects, and can become a popular tourist destination.  I wouldn't say at all that its independence was a bad idea, as Montenegro was a separate state before, and they have their own Montenegran identity, unlike the Kosovans, who are either Albanian or Serbian.

[Edric O]

It should be allowed to join Albania, but it can't due to certain rules made to appease the Russians and Serbs. Apparently Bosnian Serbs are planning to secede and join Serbia.

But Bosnian Serbs are not allowed to secede and join Serbia, just like Kosovo isn't allowed to join Albania... and the result is a complete and utter mess.

If only Tito were alive today...

I think Montenegro does have good economic prospects, and can become a popular tourist destination.

Perhaps, but again, its economic future depends entirely on the European Union.

I wouldn't say at all that its independence was a bad idea, as Montenegro was a separate state before, and they have their own Montenegran identity, unlike the Kosovans, who are either Albanian or Serbian.

What counts as "identity?" Every small region in the world has its own customs and traditions that could be called an "identity."

And yes, Montenegro was a separate state before, but so was Bremen, Hamburg or Venice.

[Dunenewt]

But Bosnian Serbs are not allowed to secede and join Serbia, just like Kosovo isn't allowed to join Albania... and the result is a complete and utter mess.

Which is a shame indeed.  If the maps could be redrawn in the Balkans by some external actor, say Norway, then perhaps things would be much better.  Kosovo to Albania without the northern 3 provinces which are mainly Serbian, Republic Sprska (spelling?) to Serbia, etc

If only Tito were alive today...

Heh, one of the few communists I can stand, although I think bringing him back now would not solve anything.

Perhaps, but again, its economic future depends entirely on the European Union.

The same could be said about many Eastern European countries.

What counts as "identity?" Every small region in the world has its own customs and traditions that could be called an "identity."

A national identity as opposed to a regional identity. Kosovo is a region, but has never had a national identity.  The people there divide themselves between Serb and Albanian, not Kosovan or non Kosovan.  In Montenegro, people saw themselves as Montenegran or Serbian, which is the difference.

And yes, Montenegro was a separate state before, but so was Bremen, Hamburg or Venice.

Bremen and Hamburg were Imperial Free Cities, and in the case of Venice, people still push for the secession of Northern Italy from the rest.

[Dante]

or Scotland from Britain, to speak of why "you" should care...

We don't need the precedent of some wartorn hinterlands in order to establish independence here. What we need is for people to make up their minds...

But that's offtopic, and a subject that I'm rather tired of anyway. My point was that if Kosovo cannot stand on its own (which seems to be the prevailing opinion) then it will either be propped up by the EU in perpetuity or left to implode in its own time. I admit, when I posted last I hadn't considered the former option, and was wondering why anyone would care if the latter came to pass.

If Kosovo ends up being a drain on the EU of course, then the situation may change. People will start caring. Specifically they will start caring about their money, and start taking steps to safeguard it.

[Dunenewt]

Meh, Scotland needs less independence and stop sponging off English tax payers' money!

[Dante]

Keep to the topic, my southerly, borderline racist friend. :P

[Caid Ivik]

Which is a shame indeed. If the maps could be redrawn in the Balkans by some external actor, say Norway, then perhaps things would be much better. Kosovo to Albania without the northern 3 provinces which are mainly Serbian, Republic Sprska (spelling?) to Serbia, etc

But that's offtopic, and a subject that I'm rather tired of anyway. My point was that if Kosovo cannot stand on its own (which seems to be the prevailing opinion) then it will either be propped up by the EU in perpetuity or left to implode in its own time. I admit, when I posted last I hadn't considered the former option, and was wondering why anyone would care if the latter came to pass.

If Kosovo ends up being a drain on the EU of course, then the situation may change. People will start caring. Specifically they will start caring about their money, and start taking steps to safeguard it.

People don't care much about EU economics when they are threatened by a war. "Norway" would think in another way, if they had, let's say, a large turkish minority, which political leaders base their agenda on striving for autonomy. Such "external actors" were always present and not always succesful. Turks held themselves long, but for example Austria did not.

You compared the situation to Serbian Republic in Bosnia, and there you have that, what I would call the right way. All three ethnics hardly, but effectively cooperate on establishing common federal administration. That's a good course, because people are thinking and working. "External actors", the EU and UN emissaries, are doing good work here. The case of Kosovo is fully opposite: both major ethnics (Gypsies and Turks of course ignored by them) are led by emotions and thus try to separate one from another. People follow their demagogic leaders and think these will work for themselves. "External actors", the NATO and UN (and now also EU) military only help the separation. However, good old entropy rule says that to build a federation is thousand times harder than to declare national independence. The question stays if we should follow this "nature" and consequent laws of jungle or to "reason" and laws acceptable by all.

[Andrew]

So was there a referendum or plebiscite?

Did the people inside Kosovo actually vote for independence or did the government just declare it?

If there was no referendum, then the government are just wanting attention.

[Edric O]

There was no referendum, but I think in this case it is very clear that the overwhelming majority of the people of Kosovo wanted independence.

However, the question is whether any region of a country has the right to declare independence if the majority of people living in that region wish it. And if the answer is yes, can I declare an independent republic in my back yard if I (100% of the population of my back yard) wish it?

[Dunenewt]

Keep to the topic, my southerly, borderline racist friend. :P

I respect the Scottish need for their own identity, but not their need for independence.

Then again I think all of Ireland should be part of the United Kingdom.