The right way to bet

[gunner154]

It's quite simple actually.

If you only account for tangible, material benefits and detriments, it is quite obvious that it is better to believe that God does not exist, because, heck, he's the intangible, so it doesn't really matter if you wager for or against him, since you are only looking at how you enjoy or suffer in this lifetime. Heck, who can you wager for if you don't believe God exists? (maybe I misunderstood this part) This part shouldn't even exist. I disagree with the Status Quo part of this: It is correct to a certain (I would venture to say great) extent that if you are an atheist and yet you wager for God, you pretty much believe that you are gaining nothing.

If you believe God exists, there is no argument. Believe in God is the only sensible thing to do.

Can you prove that God exists? EdricO has proven in one thread that this is not possible. I have to agree it's a flawed wager, but Spectral Paladin's version is equally flawed too because, like Gunwounds has said, that perspective is quite subjective. However, it is possible to not believe that God exists and wager against God - since doing so does not necessarily mean screwing your life up. You can be a charitable atheist too.

I would like to point out that if you believe that God exists, Gaining all after death would be a fairly good stand to take nonetheless, since life is temporary but the "after death" part of it is eternal. Would you prefer to Gain all for eternity or have Misery for eternity?

[Note: My head is quite messed up. Mentally tired now. I might clarify something later if I had the time]

[nemafakei]

The right way to bet is to pick the greatest x for which

  x = Σn_ip_i (for all i)

Where n_i is the value of the outcome with probability P(n_i) = p_i

That said, Edric's point is precisely the one I've been trying to make - Pascal's wager is immoral.

[Spectral Paladin]

I strongly disagree. Remember that what is at stake does not affect the outcome. This formula takes the value of the outcome into account only because after a number of bets this is likely to be what you get. It is incorrect to use it in a wager such as this, where you can only try once.

[GUNWOUNDS]

The right way to bet is to pick the greatest x for which

[GUNWOUNDS]

Not really a fair question, since we don't know much about your life in general. And you say that your purposes would be the same regardless of god or religion, which implies that being a christian doesn't have as much of an impact on your life as other influences. Which would also mean that becoming an atheist wouldn't actually affect your life that much. I could hazard a guess about saving time that would otherwise have been in church, but I don't even know if you go. And it's not that big a deal anyway.

Besides which religion suits some people. Whether or not god exists, as Edric said some people gain a psychological benefit from it. I imagine that this can manifest itself in many ways. A comforting blanket maybe, or extra confidence (not to be confused with a raging superiority complex). A safety net, in terms of the wager. I prefer to think of it as a pair of rose coloured glasses, myself, but to each his own.

And in turn, atheism suits others. I know that I would be miserable if I were to adopt a religion. And not just because I would believe that my entire purpose in existing is to suffer for all eternity (after all, who can't change who you are. Kind of a hopeless existence, really. What really bugs me is that there are some pople who actually believe that and spend their whole, short life contemplating the eternal pain to follow). The whole concept of organised religion is anathema to me. Though I admit, sometimes you do get some kickass clothes.

Of course, I might settle down once I got those pink spectacles on... I'm rambling. Suffice to say that whether or not god exists, some people benefit in this life through different lifestyles. And god should consider that. If he exists.

Wagering religion. Alright, here goes.

I am an atheist. Also, going by certain standards, a sinful one.

So, if god does not exist then at least I enjoyed my time here. And I was right about everything.

But if god does exist, and isn't the all-forgiving, all-loving god but a deity of holy wrath and vengence, then I'm going to hell. Where I shall suffer until the end of time, and possibly after that. I considered this possibility years ago, and I decided that I don't care, Pascal. If I go to hell for being me, for being the me that god created or the me that I created, then the law is unjust and my consolation in hell that can never be taken away is that I, with the moral complexities of a bean, am god's moral superior. And that I lived my life according to my principles, twisted though they may be. Take that and shove it, Pascal, I worked this out long before I met you and your gambling addiction.

the problem with saying "i will be me and go to hell for it"... is that it is as illogical as saying

[Acriku]

And to adress acriku... he states that you cannot choose to believe in something.... so then he is saying he is being an atheist against his will?

Technically... I'd like to believe in God because it renders a deep personal relationship. But, with what I've thought about I cannot resort to such a thing. So, you could say I'm an atheist against my will. But that's also like finding out that the Earth revolves around the Sun. Now I cannot help but think that the Earth revolves around the sun against my will. But more to the matter, one cannot just decide to believe in God. If one takes a look at the odds, and works them out to believe in God as a matter of personal safety, he cannot just say "I believe in God now" and it will be so. It's a process, and as you say it's a stepping stone. Albeit, a false stone.

the problem with saying "i will be me and go to hell for it"... is that it is as illogical as saying  "i will keep my one penny instead of offering it up for the chance to gain infinity."  Its not just about becoming moral beings.... thats just the tip of it i tihnk...God perhaps will create other worlds, creations, universes for us to explore, this is probably only the begining....and to leave yourself locked up in spiritual prison and miss out on everything is just sad.  You yourself have such an imagination and are able to appreciate all types of interesting things, as is evident by your love of fan fiction and your vivid imagination.  The enjoyment you would experience in an afterlife with God could be so incredible, that to say you will trade it off for  a few measely years of flesh life is sad and unfortunate to say the least.

What a fancy story. Now, is this coming from the Bible or your hopeful wishing? I get the feeling it's the latter. You're appealing to emotion, Gunwounds. Tsk tsk.

I was wondering if you had any other objection to the point I made before about the wager leaving out all other possible Gods, besides the "partial definition" objection.

[GUNWOUNDS]

Now, is this coming from the Bible or your hopeful wishing? I get the feeling it's the latter. You're appealing to emotion, Gunwounds. Tsk tsk.

Actually the Bible does speak about such things.

[Dante]

I'm sure I would miss out on a lot. Infinate possibilities and all that. And exploring other universes is one of my all time favourite fantasies. But I would rather be me and be damned than be someone else and be blessed. For many reasons, among them a belief that if God wanted perfect obedience then he would have created clones with little to no willpower. And why explore other universes when it is someone else doing it, and not me? And if infinate possibilities are the reward for becoming a sycophant, then I'd prefer to miss them.

What it boils down to isn't an attachment to the pleasures of the flesh, it's a complete unwillingness to compromise. I'm quite capable of percieving beyond this lifetime. If god is kind then he will forgive me. If not then I do not wish to be forgiven.

[Spectral Paladin]

Actually the Bible does speak about such things.  And its not appealing to emotion... its appealing to reason.  If i saw a child trading one 10 dollar bill for 5 one dollar bills with another child thinking that the 5 one dollar bills were "more" than the one 10 dollar bill i would tell him not to do it... because he would be getting cheated... nothing to do with emotion... everything to do with logic and reason.  Basically saying that a few years of measely flesh life is not worth it to damn yourself for an eternity... although i know its hard to grasp due to our perception and desires being rooted in this flesh.

Bad example. In this case the kid is obviously wrong; it is certain that 10>5. It is not subjective. Whether afterlife exists, is. A more appropriate one would be the following:

you are the kid with the 5 dollars and I 'm the other one. So I ask you to give me your five dollars and I promise I will give you 10, at a later time. Do you take my word? Do you take the word all those people mentioned in the first post?

Keep your five dollars. It would certainly be great to have 10, but no matter how great it would be and how much you desire it, it is highly unlikely I will return to give them to you.

[GUNWOUNDS]

I'm sure I would miss out on a lot. Infinate possibilities and all that. And exploring other universes is one of my all time favourite fantasies. But I would rather be me and be damned than be someone else and be blessed. For many reasons, among them a belief that if God wanted perfect obedience then he would have created clones with little to no willpower. And why explore other universes when it is someone else doing it, and not me? And if infinate possibilities are the reward for becoming a sycophant, then I'd prefer to miss them.

What it boils down to isn't an attachment to the pleasures of the flesh, it's a complete unwillingness to compromise. I'm quite capable of percieving beyond this lifetime. If god is kind then he will forgive me. If not then I do not wish to be forgiven.

I totally understand that.

[GUNWOUNDS]

Bad example. In this case the kid is obviously wrong; it is certain that 10>5. It is not subjective. Whether afterlife exists, is. A more appropriate one would be the following:

you are the kid with the 5 dollars and I 'm the other one. So I ask you to give me your five dollars and I promise I will give you 10, at a later time. Do you take my word? Do you take the word all those people mentioned in the first post?

Keep your five dollars. It would certainly be great to have 10, but no matter how great it would be and how much you desire it, it is highly unlikely I will return to give them to you.

Of course its not a perfect analogy. We're talking about metaphysics.

[Spectral Paladin]

I would still reject it...just how believable a potion of eternal life is? Not at all. I would not throw away my penny.

I am not sure how to intepret this; you believe in religion as much as a potion of eternal life? Or would you so easily be tricked into giving your money?

What if the drink was poison and didn't benefit me anyway?

[Dante]

To live is to change. To adapt is to change.

Are you familiar with Neil Gaiman's Sandman, Gunwounds? I'll hide the next paragraph for any that might not want to spoil the story. [hide]Near the end of the series, the primary character dies. He had several oppertunities to avoid this fate (if you are familiar with the work then these came in the form of Nuala's summons and finding Lyta Hall), but either did not take the oppertunity or actively turned away from it. When one of the other characters later asks why he let it happen, the answer is something along the lines of 'He did much more than let it happen. There came a point when he realized he must change or die, and there was a limit to how much he would change.' In other words, rather than betray his core principles (foremost among these being a strict adherence to rules, and all of the actions that the character took were to follow rules), this character chose to die.

Essentially this is the same choice. Change or be damned. And there is a limit to how much I will let myself change. [/hide]

Besides that, I think that identity is what you want it to be. If you define yourself through the food you eat then that is your identity. Thus changing what you eat changes your identity, and you become a different person. Perhaps not to others, but to yourself. If you define yourself through other criteria, then those are what matter.

Have you ever asked yourself if what you are is what you should be though?

Yes. Then I decided that there is no 'should,' and fiercely resent any suggestion to the contrary. This isn't a personal attack, just a side note.

I... have a good relationship with my family. I wasn't brought up to believe in anything in particular (which is why I don't), but it's been made clear to me that if I wanted to take up some religion or philosophy, I was free to do so. In other words, I can believe what I want. Now that I'm older, I greatly appreciate that. Certainly there's some mild disapproval sometimes, generally related to my lack of empathy for others, but all in all I'm philosophically free.

This is not the case with god. God does not allow freedom to believe or do as one chooses and be loved anyway, god wants everyone to do exactly as he says or be damned. This rigid, arbitary system is not one that I think a good parent would use, and certainly not one that I'd ever expose a child to. Not because I like children per se, but because I'd hate to think of what they'd grow up to be...

God shouldn't want love or obedience. He (or she, as I keep meaning to say. Though 'It' is more likely) has created independent, free-thinking beings. What kind of monster creates free will but insists on dictating its use? It would be like giving a child some money on the condition that he use it to buy a gift for the giver. Love is love when freely given, with no coersion. Obedience is obedience no matter what the circumstances. If god wanted perfect love and to that end created free will in order to make the love willing and perfect, then he is a sick, egotistic, insecure bastard with an inferiority complex. If one creates free will, then one should be prepared for it to actually be free. Of demand and of coersion.

I understand where you are coming from Dante... but i think we have to question what does it mean to be "who we are".

[GUNWOUNDS]

I would still reject it...just how believable a potion of eternal life is? Not at all. I would not throw away my penny.

I am not sure how to intepret this; you believe in religion as much as a potion of eternal life? Or would you so easily be tricked into giving your money?

What if the drink was poison and didn't benefit me anyway?

Its an analog you goof.

[Spectral Paladin]

Now who's resorting to insults? In any case, the analogy doesn't work. I can't imagine anyone (you included) who would throw his money away, even a penny, for something supposed to be a potion of eternal life, while you suggest this is what one would do.

You ignored the "what if is harmful" part. The reason I made a modified version of your sig in the first place was to show that the outcome is not "status quo" in both cases. As I have been saying all along, being religious may reduce your potential happiness and you may even end up miserable.

[GUNWOUNDS]

Now who's resorting to insults? In any case, the analogy doesn't work. I can't imagine anyone (you included) who would throw his money away, even a penny, for something supposed to be a potion of eternal life, while you suggest this is what one would do.

Then substitute the analogy for something easier to imagine... such as giving up one dollar to win 250 million powerball lottery.

[GUNWOUNDS]

Since spectral keeps harping about the potential harm of religion i will repost everything from the first page that refutes the alleged "harm" which is false....since i guess he didnt read it the first time.

[GUNWOUNDS]

And furthermore.... Acriku even states that he lives a life quite similar to that of a sincere person of faith.

[Dante]

Just because it might not hold true for some, does not mean that the same can be said for everyone. As I said earlier, I'd be miserable in a religious life. And I'm sure that I'm not the only one.

[GUNWOUNDS]

Just because it might not hold true for some, does not mean that the same can be said for everyone. As I said earlier, I'd be miserable in a religious life. And I'm sure that I'm not the only one.

Right i have taken that into consideration.... which why i said this:

basically what i am saying is that the quality of life here on earth is not a factor..... 100 years of joy is still infinitely less important than eternal life in paradise.

It is logical to trade 100 years of misery (altho a life of faith doesnt have to be) for eternal paradise even with the possibility that it doesnt exist.

Its a bet that is logically sound.

[Dante]

Alright, but the point remains that faith could damage a life. Not to say that it will, just that it could. That's all. In relation to the wager, yes, that isn't really important. I'm not disagreeing with its logical soundness in this case, just with that point.

[Spectral Paladin]

Because Spectral is only interested in explaining how misery makes the trade off not mathematically sound.

That is not true. It's the odds I am mainly interested in. However, initially I wish to show that in case God does not exist, the outcome is not the same for both believers and non-believers; otherwise there is no point considering not wagering for God.

Having pointed that out, I go on to look at the odds. Nema's formula is only valid for a number of bets; x is going to be your expected winnings. For a one-shot bet though, logic dictates that only the odds are taken into account.

[Acriku]

Speaking for myself, I would think that the thing that would be harmful to me that is practical to hold on to is the willingless to create difference. If I thought things were part of God's plan, then I wouldn't want to change them, despite the harm they might cause me. However, if I didn't think so, I would work to change what might harm me to what wouldn't harm me. Like the old saying, "A pair of hands working can do a lot more than a thousand praying."

[Acriku]

I understand you can object to the wager on personal grounds but I believe and even Nema has pointed out that the Wager is sound from a logical point of view.

Which is why i think spectral cannot win this debate.

Hmm, funny... How can something be logical if it contains a huge logical fallacy? *scratches head*

[Harkdawg]

Well ill give my ,02 on the subject :)

Why is that, that whenever "god" (if u wanna call it that) is mentioned, everyone tags  "god" as A -

Some grey bearded old guy in white robe sitting on top of a cloud with a sledgehammer, angry, revengeful, everwatchful, allknowing, allpowerful, breathing down ure neck if u do something "sinful".

And if you dare to do something that is called a sin, oh boy, you better redeem youreself, OR ELSE ... that sledgehammer gonna nail you bad, straight to a place called "HELL" ?

I am sorry, but that is rather sad. To me that looks like something made up by Man who were afraid and wanted control. What better way to control someone to make him realize that there is something out there, who you cannot match, a divine power, who "made" you and commands you to obey hes "rules". After that what can a person think ?

"oh no, there is this god, and ummm hes allpowerful, he wants me to live by these rules and if i dont ... ill go straight to a place of enternal damnation. :( cant live anymore they way i want, cant be free ... oh well its sunday and ill be on my way to church"

The most amazing part is, not that there acctually is a story like this to go with "god" , but that Millions have come to belive in this story and obey it.

That, my friends, is the power of fear.

I do belive in "God" (again if you wanna call it that way, be my guest), but IT has almost nothing to do with the things written above.

Either you belive or wager against "God", whatever you do in here, there is absolutaley no punishment awaiting for you in the "beyond".BE FREE, Live youre life as you please, "god" always loves you, unconditionally, for ultimately, there is nothing but love.