The next great world-changing event

[Edric O]

Every once in a while, a world-changing event happens. I'm talking about the kinds of events that fundamentally change human society - and often human psychology as well - and radically shift the course of history. Examples include the conquests of Alexander the Great, the Roman Civil War(s) around the time of Caesar and Augustus, the Fall of Rome, the Crusades, the discovery of America, the French Revolution and Napoleonic Wars, World War I, World War II, and the fall of the Soviet Union. Each of these events had a tremendous impact on society and history; in particular, it was very difficult for people living before the event to imagine what the world might look like after the event. To use a Dune-ish metaphor, those events were like the endpoint of the Golden Path - one can predict the future with some certainty up to the event in question, but what happens after the event is unpredictable.

For example, any reasonably well-informed person living in 1933 would have been able to guess what the world would look like six years later, in 1939. But who could have guessed, in 1939, what the world would look like six years later, in 1945? World War II was a world-changing event that blocked our ability to predict the future with any degree of certainty.

It seems that there are periods when history advances in predictable ways, ended by sudden, world-changing events that throw history off its previous predictable path and onto a new path.

We are currently going through one of the "quiet" periods of predictable history. The question is, when will this period end, and what will be the event that ends it?

[Caid Ivik]

In every age people searched for diviners and economic analysts, because they couldn't imagine what will happen in the future. The events you mention were no one-day changes, they had long chains of causes and long-termed effects. And all were regionally limited.

[Kokiri-Mentat]

It's interesting, Caid, that you mention the fact that most of these chains of events were regionally limited.  With the synchronized development of globalism and the internet, this may not be the case in the future.  To reference hitchhikers' guide, we are experiencing cultural erosion, especially in the west.  The lingua franca for the I.T. industry, pilots, international law, business, pop music, is english (although that could soon be changing for some fields.) 

Actually, if you consider the development of the internet (socially, economically, politically, epistemologically) an event (albeit a rather long one, but not much longer that WWII) then I suppose that's one that is still occurring right now.

After the internet, my guess is china will succeed in squashing any unique culture left in Tibet.  Perhaps dali lahma will be mysteriously assassinated before that happens??  The U.S. will throw down. >>> perhaps a good chunk of the UN too.  The peace treaties between Palestine and Israel will fail, they start a serious brawl.  US is with Israel on this one.  Iran gets nukes after fooling the UN on the whole "it's only for energy" spiel.  Of course they are buddy buddy with the Russians, so it's those two together on this one.  They decide that china with their 3 billion people looks like a good person to be friends with right about now, so what the hell.  China, Iran, Palestine and Russia fighting Israel, U.S., and oh...why not Canada too.(Europe is sick of world wars, so all EU is out on this one)  But by the time this starts up, China and U.S will still be racing for that new Helium-3 Isotope found on the moon which will probably allow for the production of a non-radio active nuclear weapon of sorts.  So, whoever gets that first will probably win, unless the U.S. gets it first.  They don't want to be responsible for  another Nagasaki Hiroshima incident, so they'll probably just sell it to Canada via ebay and tell them where to drop it.  People get pissed, pretty soon nukes are flying everywhere.  WWIII......just throwin ideas out there.

But seriously WWIII, in 20 years wouldn't surprise me entirely.  Any better speculations? ??? ???

[nemafakei]

Excuse pedantry, but "The peace treaties between Palestine and Israel will fail, they start a serious brawl."

As I recall, Israel has never recognised Palaestine, so no such treaties exist. Every now and then Israel decides to remove some of their official outfit from parts of Palaestine for a while, and every so often one of the various paramilitary groups in Palaestine decides to declare a ceasefire for a bit. That's pretty much as official as peace gets.

To be honest, though, I don't think a WWIII scenario with such major axes is feasible - not any time soon, at least. The leaders of the more powerful countries are all far too interested in maintaining their own position, and they no longer need world wars to do that. That may change, but proximate causes like the ones you mention will be out of the window.

The next obvious 'event' seems most likely to be this peaking and dropping off of oil production. The introduction of a tangible limitation on such a vital commodity will drastically change the rules of the game.

[Egeides]

Lakota indians will declare independence from US. Truly unpredictable ;D

[Kokiri-Mentat]

thank you for the reply, Nema  ;).  Yes, I believe you are correct that Israel has never recognized Palestine, but recognition of sovereignty and peace treaties are not mutually exclusive.  As long as there is violence between two identifiable groups, there will be efforts towards either violence or peace negotiations.  I am referring to this recent event.

Also, I agree with you that it would take more than my little scenario to engage the major world powers in a new world war.  (that last scenario was more just for fun than anything). 

If a new world war were to happen though, I would speculate that it COULD happen if an unjust monopoly over energy resources were to occur.  The U.S. is trying to avoid energy dependency by recently passing new legislation which would require automobiles to hit something like 35 gallons of gas to the mile by 2020.  Also if you read the helium isotope link from my last post, you will find out that this resource could possibly allow for less dangerous production of electricity through nuclear fusion.  China, Russia, India, and the U.S. have all expressed much interest in this lunar resource. 

War over energy, or Cold War over energy.  Could happen.  But only if control over the major resources becomes centralized within a small group of abusive individuals.  I can see many ways of avoiding this situation, so I don't see this being the most likely reason for a WWIII.  nothin' more that a few skirmishes perhaps.

In 100 years....more international laws regulating globalism.  Perhaps the perfect realization of globalism.  Instead of the laws of the EU, US, UK, China, Russia, ect...we might have the laws of Earth (I'm referring not of a UN-ish entity, but of one that has much more global authority).  Citizens of the World or Nations at War?  I'm not sure yet.  But those seem like the two likely choices to me.  I still think WWIII is the more likely choice, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

[Dude_Doc]

Peak oil/peak oil production?

[Andrew]

Peak oil/peak oil production?

That's already occurring with the Iraq war and securing the oil there for future needs.

In 2 years China will be consuming more oil than the USA.

WWII with Japan was partially started over disputes of oil production/distribution.

link

In 1940, Japan occupied French Indochina (Vietnam) upon agreement with the French Vichy government, and joined the Axis powers Germany and Italy. These actions intensified Japan's conflict with the United States and Great Britain which reacted with an oil boycott. The resulting oil shortage and failures to solve the conflict diplomatically made Japan decide to capture the oil rich Dutch East Indies (Indonesia) and to start a war with the US and Great Britain.

link

The shortage of oil was the key to Japan's military situation. It was the main problem for those preparing for war, at the same time, the reason why the nation was moving toward war.... Without oil, Japan's pretensions to empire were empty shadows.

Basically USA and Britain would not sell oil to Japan which caused Japan to go to war with them.

Now the USA needs oil, and Middle eastern countries are weak and easy targets to invade.

It will be fun to see what happens with China and India in the future with their economies growing extremely large. If oil production does not somehow continuously increase, wars will be started.

[Dante]

"We are currently going through one of the "quiet" periods of predictable history."

You think? I would argue that the world is still feeling the reprecussions of the attack on the World Trade Centre. I do get rather tired of the... drama that surrounds the event, but in all seriousness it changed the world. Foreign policy shifted not only between the US and its enemies but its allies as well, and between those allies themselves. It precipitated the invasion of two nation states, and thus two ongoing (lets face it) wars. And that's not even mentioning how touchy people are about religion now...

I would much prefer that we get on with our lives and wait for the next 'big thing' to occur, but like Princess Diana, the events of 11th September 2001 are just going to keep coming back again and again and again. Even when people don't recognise it. Who could have predicted, when Otto von Bismark advised an invasion of Austria, that the chain of events set in motion would indirectly lead to two world wars? Thoses two wars are still having effects, that is the way of these big shakers, or more broadly the way of history itself. Likewise, a century from now, the foreign policy, the national leadership, the economic situation, all will either have been determined or influenced by one day in late 2001.

So as for the next 'big thing,' lets hope that it does something to counteract the last one.

Though personally my money would be on global meltdown.

[Andrew]

Let's not forget the mass hysteria over the North pole melting and flooding many large cities.

Although satellite pictures do show it melting the most ever observed. So something is going on there.

50 years from now will be very different. Just like 50 years ago was very different.

[Kokiri-Mentat]

Oooh, oooh, I have a new idea.  China will discover how gravity is manifested and use the resulting technology to transform Beijing into a floating metropolis.  And if the U.S. continues to annoy them with their Democracy rhetoric, then they will proceed to drop Antarctica on top of the state of Texas.

ps. Hope no one minds if I write in blue.

[Dude_Doc]

Now the USA needs oil, and Middle eastern countries are weak and easy targets to invade.

But haven't they also peaked?

It will be fun to see what happens with China and India in the future with their economies growing extremely large. If oil production does not somehow continuously increase, wars will be started.

Interesting. The last oil will be spent in wars to get some drops more.

[Nyarlathotep]

Let's not forget the mass hysteria over the North pole melting and flooding many large cities.

Although satellite pictures do show it melting the most ever observed. So something is going on there.

I'm with you on this one. Not specifically the North pole, but something environmental anyway.

[Dunenewt]

WWII with Japan was partially started over disputes of oil production/distribution.

link

linkBasically USA and Britain would not sell oil to Japan which caused Japan to go to war with them.

That's not right.  The US withheld oil from Japan because of its Imperialism, and the situation in China, so rather than seek a peaceful option, Japan invaded the Dutch East Indies.