Israel...

[Mihail]

But won't those aircraft have to fly OVER IraQ [b(for Caid) or Siria? In Iraq they'll be shot down by USA and I don't know if Siria would let foreign military in their coutry.

About the missles, well, doesen't Israel have missles of their own to retaliate?

Very good. You spelled Iraq correctly. Now I get to bug you about Syria! Yay!

Back on topic, I don't doubt that Syria could let some military forces into their country without declaring it. They're sneaky like that. ;)

[Caid Ivik]

What I had against Irak spelling?  ;D  Btw that's a good point about it, as it would be really hard to get trough. Perhaps it was really the best choice for an attack for USA, you can't fly over so easily...

[ordos45]

Syria, I would guess would...but their wars with Israel over the years is why I'd guess that.  Going over Iraqi airspace...problematic, the first few times the Iraqi Pupp--Interim Government would probably give warnings, as well as Bush, possibly Blair.  After that though, combat air patrols would probably launch to 'protect Iraqi airspace'.

[Barbarossa]

Erm...

"Syria-Iran is a rogue's pact. Hounded by their own populations, on the losing side of history, Damascus and Teheran seek solace and aid in each other's arms. At bottom, however, these two governments themselves have little in common: the mullahs in Iran question whether Hafez al-Assad is even a Muslim, and he in turn no doubt sees them as religious fanatics. Such divisions may not invalidate the connection between the two countries, but they do constrain it in significant ways. The Iranians are allowed to operate in Syria-controlled Lebanon, for instance, and they send some oil and tourists to Syria. But substantive and operational links are missing."

Does not sound like they have Excellant Relations, but they are allied and do appearantly allow some movement. I don't think the Syrians would be altogether too adverse to Iranian military movements through their territory. As long as they don't have to worry about serious repercussions from the involvement.

http://www.danielpipes.org/article/300

[Davidu]

S-Y-r-i-a

Satfisfied  ;D???

Jeez, why do you need that Y over there?? It doesen't change ANYTHIIIIIIING.

Eh..

[Dude_Doc]

Seriously, does anybody think a "union" in the Middle East (against the "Western world") is plausible within the future?

[Barbarossa]

Seriously, does anybody think a "union" in the Middle East (against the "Western world") is plausible within the future?

At the moment? No. There is simply too many internal divisions within the Middle East.

In the future? Who knows.

[Shiroko]

The Iranian goverment is simply going with old tactics.

The feudalist goverment there is very popular anymore and the best way to avoid those problems is find a common enemy. Iran is the leading country in making Israel the enemy of Islam. They are possesed with the palestinians more than the palestinians themselves. And a lot of people from the intellectual front there complain on it.

That's why it's popular for the prime minister to shoot pointless comments about Israel.

Iran obviously wants nukes, it feels frightened by Israel and having nukes would make it feel safer.

Same way it works for Israel.

The problem is that Iran isn't the most sane goverment in the world and it support terrorists around the world. Iran having nukes is not a missle threat, by it defintely can become a terror threat if they get pissed.

-Shiroko

[Barbarossa]

Do you beleive that they would risk the consequences of arming a Terrorist Faction with WMDs?

[Caid Ivik]

What's a "Terrorist Faction"? My mother works as a pharmaceut and I am sure that she was able to make a "WMD" to poison whole hospital even without an official support...

[Shiroko]

Do you beleive that they would risk the consequences of arming a Terrorist Faction with WMDs?

If they can get away with it and hide the connection. I think they won't hesitate as much as some people think.

What's a "Terrorist Faction"? My mother works as a pharmaceut and I am sure that she was able to make a "WMD" to poison whole hospital even without an official support...

Really? How? You'd be surprised how hard is it from creating a simple poisen to turn it to an efficient mass poisening device. Keep in mind chemicals weapons require a gas that survives a blast for example, and your normal NH3 won't do this. You need more complicated poisens.

-Shiroko

[Caid Ivik]

Well, when you are on galenics and control ie all distribution of infusions and medicaments, it's not that hard...you don't need VX to poison people.

[Shiroko]

I'm not sure, not so many stable, compact and still mass destructive poisens exist.

The Sarin at Japan, which is rather advanced didn't cause much more damage than a lot of much simpler conventional bombs.

From the first link in google:

In 1994, residents of Matsumoto, Japan, began turning up with symptoms of illness due to nerve gas. There were seven deaths and some 500 injuries. This was a test run for a second attack in 1995 in a Tokyo subway, in which 12 people died and thousands sought medical attention. The attacks came from the apocalyptic Aum Shinrikyo cult, which was also trying to develop biological weapons based on botulism and Ebola virus.

VX is the exception here probably being extremely deadly, and even then "The Rock" makes it seem more apocalyptic than it is. Same goes for bio weapons.

Nuclears are the exception, even the basic ones are extremely deadly. But even the basic ones require very sophisticated equipment, that is usually inspected by the owning goverment very well.

(And no spy stories of all of these soviet nukes lying around...)

-Shiroko

[Caid Ivik]

It doesn't have to be a gas, I ment ie daily and mass produced infusions; here you have it easy, as a pharmaceutical laboratory has many chemicals. Well enough destructive potential would be poisoning of drinking water source, but I won't make studies about it  ;)

[Davidu]

Try with an experiment... see if it works at the scale of a city. ;D

[Shiroko]

We pretty much left the point but oh well.

Just how much poisen do you think you'll need so spill into a water supply? Not to mention that a test will find it fast enough and people will drink a little mineral water.

Or how many bad infusions would a hospital give before stopping and checking if they're bad, while using alternatives one it got from another hospital.

If you want a lot of damage you have to do it fast.

Now seriously, back to Iran. And I don't mean the Flock of Seagulls song....

-Shiroko

[Caid Ivik]

Ie 200 dead is enough to cause panic through media, and that's the point of any terrorist activity, while if you are able to disrupt (or abuse a certain chemical aspect of) desinfection, it would hit with flashbacks. It won't kill a whole civilization (such an activity is simply impossible), nor a single city, but the point is still fulfilled - you don't know who is going to be hit.

For this, no government is needed. Well, a state has much better resources for its own actions, which don't have to be terroristic. Why, when it has an army...

[ps501]

Do you beleive that they would risk the consequences of arming a Terrorist Faction with WMDs?

Plausible Scenario:  Iran (or other anti-Israeli state) acquires a modern nuclear weapon.  Instead of putting the weapon into a very trackable missle, they instead place the weapon into an average looking travel trunk.  (Approx size 2 foot by 2 foot by 4 foot).  They place trunk on an average looking truck, pass through the country of Iraq, and arrive at some Israeli city.  Drive then goes back to the rear of the truck and detonates it in the name of Islam (or his mother)

Who exactly would the "world" blame?  Since there would be no easily discovery or tracable delivery method, the would would just have to "wonder" who did it. 

[Dude_Doc]

Instead of putting the weapon into a very trackable missle, they instead place the weapon into an average looking travel trunk.  (Approx size 2 foot by 2 foot by 4 foot).  They place trunk on an average looking truck, pass through the country of Iraq, and arrive at some Israeli city.  Drive then goes back to the rear of the truck and detonates it in the name of Islam (or his mother)

I don't think that would work. Not after 9/11. And even if the plan somehow would succeed, wouldn't they already have tried it?

Who exactly would the "world" blame?  Since there would be no easily discovery or tracable delivery method, the would would just have to "wonder" who did it.

Oh, but they always find someone to blame. Iraq didn't even have any WMDs, yet they invaded. Hell, the US has intervened in many other countries, like Greece and Nicaguraua just for some petty politics, so why wouldn't they? The attacks on WTC paved way for the invasion of Afghanistan where innocent people died while the whole world didn't have any sympathy, so why not?

You see, there are countries which the Western world don't like. Those countries don't think like us. In the authorities' eyes, they aren't even human. A nuclear attack wouldn't just be pointed at anyone, it would be pointed to countries whose thinking differ from the "rest of the world", like North Korea, Iran, Syria, Cuba and so on. Today, we are bombed with "plausible information" about Iran's and North Korea's nuclear ambitions, how the only thing they want must have to do with terrible weapons. It could be that way. But it could also be wrong. But on the other side, nuclear weapons are not to be used as weapons, but as a defence against invasion. And what are we to say that Iran and North Korea doesn't have this right? Europe, China, Russia and the USA have some kind of "rights" to bear nuclear arms, so why not these countries?

And who knows? Maybe the terrorists have already figured this out? Maybe they know that if they attack Israel with this dirty bomb, Iran will be wiped out, thus their stable base of reqruits and resources?

[ps501]

I don't think that would work. Not after 9/11. And even if the plan somehow would succeed, wouldn't they already have tried it?

Well, they may not have a nuke yet.. (note I said yet.  the USA figured out how to do it in 1945... its only a matter of time before some extremist figures it out)

PSS - this isn't a 'dirty bomb' its a full fleged nuke, just in a box, and not in a missle.

---

I'm perfectly willing to believe that the western world has its propaganda machine working full tilt, as do the extremist countries (of course you could make the arguement that the USA is an extremist country too).

But if Israel was wiped out, the Islamic insane would still point to the USA, the UK, Spain, whoever.  So no I think that they (extremists), as long as there are those who believe differently, have an unlimited call to bear arms.

[Davidu]

My first problem right now is the fact that we were stupid enough to agree to american bases on out teritory. This means the terrorists will bomb the hell out of us and for good reason.

[Barbarossa]

My first problem right now is the fact that we were stupid enough to agree to american bases on out teritory. This means the terrorists will bomb the hell out of us and for good reason.

[offtopic]New bases? What the hell are these for?[/offtopic]

[Caid Ivik]

What are they for? Whole Europe thinks only about wealth and starting to forget security. And so we call USA for it. There could be even a native romanian terrorist, but if there is no power to hold him, then what would prevent him from an attack. This isn't only about terrorists, but also about any form of violence. Nobody can say his society is so perfect, that there's no potential for violence...

[Dude_Doc]

[offtopic]New bases? What the hell are these for?[/offtopic]

Uhh... what are the other 702 bases used for? And why do the US still have bases in Germany and Japan?

[Barbarossa]

Uhh... what are the other 702 bases used for? And why do the US still have bases in Germany and Japan?

That would be something I'd like to know as well. I don't think I've actually ever heard a reasonable explanation come from my gov't. And with the current system of things here, not even the "Liberals" that come into office, will remove them- From fear of losing votes.

Ah, the shape of things....  :-X