2011 Canadian election

[Andrew]

Imagine if Layton did become PM. Other government leaders would be like"who is this guy with a mustache?" when he visits. I assume Americans would have heart attack with an even more "socialist" PM up north.

But Iggy has stated repeatedly he would take no part in a coalition (which might have been a good political thing to say during election, but in practicality very stupid). I mean if technically NDP/libs have enough seats to form majority, they can't because Iggy said no during election and would piss off any liberal voters who did not want a coalition.

Either way will be a big election, as it seems everyone has something to lose (and maybe gain, but mostly lose).

Conservatives: Don't get a majority = fail (especially if no increase in seats). So while a minority win (assuming no coalition), it would still hurt them.

Liberals: Don't win more seats = fail. If gain seats but NDP form official opposition, then fail for liberals.

Bloc: Lose any seats = fail. They only run in 1 province, so if not lots of support it would hurt the party, and if NDP do good with some more seats Bloc could lose even more next election.

Green: Must win a single seat. This would be a victory. Preferably Elizabeth May. But I have a feeling that total votes will be down for them this election (NDP gain from them?). Environment not seen as hot topic this election (unless nuke activists come out of woodwork), unlike last one where Liberals had entire cap and trade policy ready to enact (which hurt them in votes).

EDIT:

Harper visiting PEI Sunday, must think he can win a seat or two here. Last election a conservative one a seat here for first time in like 20 years. PEI was liberal stronghold. Conservative winning was good for PEI as it meant Harper dumped money here to try and get more votes.

[ErasOmnius]

That would be a strange victory.

As far as the 2nd Bridge from Detroit-Windsor goes, and the main reason everyone is paying attention to the Canadian Election -- it can be hard to understand.

The NDP DOES NOT want the Bridge to be built and they are leftist. The Democrats in Michigan DO want the Bridge built, and they are leftists.

The Conservatives DO want the Bridge built, and they are rightist. The Republicans generally DO NOT, and they are rightists.

So if the NDP wins on Tuesday, the 2nd Bridge will probably be off the table.

Are Americans allowed to donate to Canadian politicians? If so, I'm sure the owner of the the 1st Bridge, the 82-yr old Ambassador Bridge, Manny Maroun, has donated to the NDP.

[Andrew]

Only Canadians. Max allowed for individuals is $1,100 per year.

New Rules for Federal Political Donations

You can search database to find who (individual and corporations) made donations. link

I assume in USA all donations have to be recorded and publicly available?

[ErasOmnius]

In the USA, direct political contributions do have to be made public and are subject to limits; except for 527 Political Information and Advocacy Groups, which has no limits whatsoever.

This is the Loophole in the 2002 Campaign Finance Reform Law. The Loophole started my jaded-ness towards politics in the USA. As long as a billionaire, left or right, (Soros) or (Koch Brothers), claims they are only advancing a cause for an Educational Purpose, and not to directly encourage or discourage voting for a particular candidate, they can spend what they want.

So basically multi-billionaires are buying the US's elections.

[ErasOmnius]

Friends in Canada. Here is a poll.

But what do you think will be the final Seat Totals in the National Canadian Legislature?

[Andrew]

Another hilarious possibility:

Harper gets within 1 seat of majority and forced to form coalition with the only green party seat (Elizabeth May). Now that would be juicy. It would at least mean Canada gets better green policies.

I've been on facebook getting people to vote. some posted that they had trouble voting (not proper ID because they were out of province), and I gave them links to elections.ca with info on other ways to vote (get more ID, get friend/neighbor to take oath swearing you are who you say).

I'll make assumptions on seats later tonight when I have more time.

Remember I can't reveal any results early on here or else I get fine and/or jail time. Elections act limits online comments, social media

I think 10PM EST is when everyone can start posting results publicly online.

[ErasOmnius]

Well let's hope their is some truth-telling that will go on after the Election today. Like if another Bridge will be built from Detroit to Windsor.

And this Bloc Quebecois. Do you think that it is a good idea for a regional party to have so much strength? I thought the secessionist stuff was from 15-20 years ago.

[Mahdi]

Today is election day? I didn't even know. This is the first federal election I have missed voting in. It is unfortunate but can't be helped.

[Andrew]

Today is election day? I didn't even know. This is the first federal election I have missed voting in. It is unfortunate but can't be helped.

OMG :(

That sucks. I guess we have them so often people forget. Not like the once every 4 year elections.

Another interesting stat is that early voting couple weeks ago (had two different days to vote before today) had I think 30% increase over last election. Whether this also happens for today, or not, time will tell.

Results are coming in. I can't say specifics though. I might sneak in a trend or so to see what is going on. Very interesting so far. Some close results which won't be known for sure until every poll reports.

[Mahdi]

My not voting is due entirely to personal reasons that have nothing to do with the election itself (as discussed in the past via IM with you Andrew). I haven't even thought about the election, but I did know one was going on. Didn't know today as election day though.

Sometimes things come up that are unavoidable and make others, like voting, drop off your list of priorities.

[Andrew]

This election completely FUBAR. Witnessing collapse of Liberal Party which has been around since July 1, 1867.

I'm guessing Conservative Majority.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/

EDIT:

Conservative Majority. :(

[Edric O]

This election completely FUBAR. Witnessing collapse of Liberal Party which has been around since July 1, 1867.

Don't mourn them. The British Liberal Party collapsed in the 1920s, and the immediate result was a succession of Conservative governments. But in the long term, it made possible the rise of the Labour Party, and social democracy eventually came to power, passing a string of reforms that massively improved the lives of the working class.

Today we lost. But the NDP came second. Four years from now, social democracy could come to power in Canada.

[ErasOmnius]

Did the Green Party Candidate win a seat?

[Andrew]

Did the Green Party Candidate win a seat?

Yes.

May elected in B.C. riding

About the only good news from the election. Oh I guess Bloc collapse is actually the best thing. So Quebec separatism is now behind us.

Green may have won a seat, but total votes is half of last election, so their party also collapsed. Not that they really had one.

@Edric

Nope, conservative majority is bad (for several things). Might be good for other stuff, but not looking forward to it.

According to wikileaks cable gov was supposed to introduce DMCA (again), but couldn't as it would be bad for them in the election. Now with majority it will get rammed through as fast as possible so everyone forgets it in 4 years for next election.

So break DRM on all your devices now while it is legal. It also means that every device manufacturer will put some form of DRM on device (no matter how simple) so that consumers can not do anything to their device since it will be illegal.

I'm waiting for statistical analysis that shows NDP surge gave Harper majority. I had no problem with NDP getting more seats. But NDP is so happy about winning lots and saying they will bring change but they can't do shit all because Conservatives have majority. Lots of inexperience in NDP party.

Bloc leader Duceppe resigned already. Iggy has public meeting this morning, possible resignation.

Liberals did so bad their leader Ignatieff lost his seat. Ignatieff's Liberals lose Official Opposition status

Voter turnout was ~61.4%

Harper has always wanted reform in the Senate so they get voted in instead of just appointed by the PM. We will see if Harper actually does this or stacks it full of Conservatives first (which he's been doing).

[ErasOmnius]

Never seen such a group of people so happy they came in second as the New Democratic Party. I guess if you've never come in second, you would feel good about it. Seems like the NDP and the Liberals should merge. I was reading about the Election a few years back about the ABC Voting Coalition in your area. Because I find it hard to believe as I look at the Electoral Map, that Ontario is that conservative. Good to see the Separatists fade away, as well.

Now that The Prime Minister of Canada has a majority, perhaps he can allocate the funds for the Second Detroit-Windsor Bridge. He'll probably go back on that promise. The politics of that Span are so very tricky.

It's good that the Green Party has a seat, and a voice. I could probably be a Green, if it weren't for their stand on abortion. They are basically the ONLY true anti-War party.

Well Andrew, you have definitely raised the awareness of the Canadian Election for me, my friends, and family. Thx.

[athanasios]

It is interesting that a conflict in a distant country can affect who is elected in an other country:

Canadian Tamils chose to desert Liberals in favour of Leftists

[ErasOmnius]

It is interesting that a conflict in a distant country can affect who is elected in an other country:

Canadian Tamils chose to desert Liberals in favour of Leftists

I hear ya'. Hopefully, here in Michigan we will get an answer on the second span to Canada from Detroit. What is unusual is that Michigan has a population of 420,000 Arabic-oriented/speaking people. Enough to warrant their own Congressional district. But the legislature split them up into 4 different legislative districts to dilute their voting power as a bloc.

[athanasios]

For how long? Arabs bear many children.

[ErasOmnius]

Who knows? The Republicans controlled Michigan's legislature when the boundaries were last drawn in 2001, and they control them again in 2011 when the boundaries will be re-drawn next month. Michigan's new Congressman is half-African-American and half-Bangledeshi, Hansen Clarke. The Democrats really want the populace of the Arabic/Asian speaking areas when they re-draw to be put in his district, but who knows if the Republicans will listen? Now there is talk the Republicans will split the Asian population into 5 different districts!

[Andrew]

Recount gives NDP historic seat total

There was a recount in a riding, and winner first was declared Conservative, but now changed to NDP. The NDP won by 9 votes. This shows that every vote counts.

They also tied a record:

NDP Leader Jack Layton's parliamentary contingent is now the largest ever Official Opposition to a majority government in Canadian history.

There are several other ridings doing recounts.

[ErasOmnius]

I suppose that's a good thing. Look for the Canadian Media to drag out Layton 'the Looney', if he doesn't start to 'play along' with flow. But if he just lets the Wars play out and multiply, without saying a word like he did in 2008, then the Media may allow him to be presented like an 'elder statesman' with a cane.

[Andrew]

Harper moves to cut per-vote subsidies

One of many steps that Harper government will be taking to hurt democracy in Canada (gutting Statistics Canada last year was first step).

With conservatives with majority he can do this and other parties are powerless to stop him. With other parties not getting funding this means Conservatives can steamroll other parties in election spending since Conservatives get more private donations.

Harper appoints 3 defeated candidates to Senate

2 of 3 senators were formerly senators, but quit to run in this election. They didn't win and so Harper appointed them back to the senate. Harper is really showing that he can do whatever he wants, and doesn't matter how bad he looks.

Harper wants senators to be elected with 8 year terms, yet he's been stacking the senate with conservative members (currently it is up to age 75). So if 50 years old and go to senate its a 25 year job with a lot of $$ per year.

It makes sense for Conservatives to do unpopular stuff now, so that population will forget it in 5 years for next election.

[ErasOmnius]

For some reason, the 3 Senators story made the local DETROIT station news story. I think it was because Stephen Harper may have announced the new Cabinet on the same day, and the local media was speculating on whether or not the 2nd Detroit-Windsor Bridge would be funded by the new Government. Weird that if you lose an election to the Lower House, you get appointed to the Upper.

So, I think it would be great if we all talked about the 'Upper House' of each of our regional and/or national governments, especially if it an appointed or non-proportional institution.