Bush warns against Taiwan independance

[Mahdi]

http://www.msnbc.com/news/1002825.asp?0bl=-0

Intersting... so instead of supporting a democratically elected nation-state Bush recognizes Formosa as a province of China, which is a brutal dictatorship with a horrifying civil rights record (oh yeah, and real WMD).

Not only that, but the Bush administration actively warned Taiwan against a democratic referendum that would have had the Chinese on Taiwan decide for themselves regarding there situation with China.

Such a leader in the fight for democracy and freedom, isn't he ::)?

[SurlyPIG]

Bush dispensing advice to Taiwan...yikes. I wonder if he could name the largest city in Taiwan.

He only fights against dictatorships that aren't his bed-buddies.

[Nyarlathotep]

It all doesn't surprise me one bit...

[Gobalopper]

Bush said, "The comments and actions made by the leader of Taiwan indicate that he may be willing to make decisions unilaterally that change the status quo, which we oppose."

He has also said that the US would, "get involved if China tried to use coercion or force to unilaterally change the status of Taiwan."

I don't see where in that article he recognizes Formosa as a province of China?

[Mahdi]

Unilateraly? A referendum is not a unilateral move....

That article is a new one at the same link, they took down the old one and replaced it with this, instead of giving this one it's own address for some reason. Yesterdays had the Bush adminsitration quoted as saying that as far as they are concerned, there is only one China, meaning that they consider Taiwan as a part of China, under the PRC's control.

[Gobalopper]

After looking at some articles the US has had the "One China" policy for the last seven presidents so it isn't a new policy.

[Mahdi]

After looking at some articles the US has had the "One China" policy for the last seven presidents so it isn't a new policy.

I didn't say it was. I said:

Intersting... so instead of supporting a democratically elected nation-state Bush recognizes Formosa as a province of China, which is a brutal dictatorship with a horrifying civil rights record (oh yeah, and real WMD).

Not only that, but the Bush administration actively warned Taiwan against a democratic referendum that would have had the Chinese on Taiwan decide for themselves regarding there situation with China.

Such a leader in the fight for democracy and freedom, isn't he ?

[Gobalopper]

And I said that Bush also said at the same time the US would protect Taiwan against any attack from China which is likely the only way Taiwan would become undemocractic under the current leadership in Taiwan.

Or would you rather have Taiwan declare complete independence after the referendum and then have China attack and have US defend them?

[Wolf]

It is possible that Bush wants to avert a regional conflict. With North Korea a possible flashpoint, and US forces already embroiled in multiple conflicts in the Middle East... American forces can't spread themselves any thinner. US forces have been deployed in South Korea for some time, but it is the "War on Terrorism" that has effectively tapped American military power. It would be dangerous, highly so, for America to engage in ANY more conflicts.

Therefore, as hypocritical as it may seem, I believe that Bush is attempting to avert conflict. However, I see his strong stance on this issue as one that may actually incite an outcry from Taiwan. There are economic reasons as well; America and China are strong trading partners. Earlier in November, I had the pleasure to listening to a presentation given by several Chinese finance ministers, and in speaking to them, I found that American-Chinese relations are quite good save for political differences -- There is a great deal of respect between the two nations. This is something I think we have seen all along, as well, with Bush visiting China early in his career.

[Mahdi]

The referendum doesn't even deal with independance, it is whether or not the people of Taiwan want the PRC to stop aiming their missiles at them.

"Or would you rather have Taiwan declare complete independence after the referendum and then have China attack and have US defend them?"

Who says that would happen? China's been threatening to invade Taiwan ever since the democratic (although incredibly corrupt and no better than the communist government of the time) Chinese government retreated there in 49. They have not even suggested that such a vote would result in their invading Taiwan. They can't do it, they don't have the amphibious capabilities needed to invade, and even if they did the seventh fleet would crush them very, very quickly. If they had the capabilities to do it, they would have done it long ago.

I seriously doubt the Chinese government would risk a world war over a vote by the Taiwanese people over whether or not they like having the PRC point all there missiles at them. The Chinese government has said absolutly nothing in that direction, and even if this vote ont he missiles was followed by a referendum on independance (which the President of Taiwan denies would follow) there would be no change. Taiwan already is a seperate nation, it's just that not everybody recognizes them as such. I don't see the Chinese looking upon such a vote any differently than they look upon the Taiwan elections.

[Mahdi]

Therefore, as hypocritical as it may seem, I believe that Bush is attempting to avert conflict. However, I see his strong stance on this issue as one that may actually incite an outcry from Taiwan. There are economic reasons as well; America and China are strong trading partners. Earlier in November, I had the pleasure to listening to a presentation given by several Chinese finance ministers, and in speaking to them, I found that American-Chinese relations are quite good save for political differences -- There is a great deal of respect between the two nations. This is something I think we have seen all along, as well, with Bush visiting China early in his career.

Which supports ACElethals comment that "He only fights against dictatorships that aren't his bed-buddies."

[Gobalopper]

I think it has more to do with how powerful they are. A war with China is far more involved then fighting Iraq or Afghanistan.

[Mahdi]

I'm not saying the USA should go to war with the PRC, that'd be pretty darn stupid. This referendum though wasn't even an issue until Bush spoke out against it, and it's still between the USA and Taiwan. The only reason this is news is because Bush denounced it. China hasn't threatend any action at all against Taiwan for it. They'd just ignore it, like they ignore everything else Taiwan says.

Neither would America's simple recognition of Taiwan result in a war. It'd seriosly piss of China, and they would say bad things about the states, and dmaage relations a little, but there would be no war or economic sanctions. China had a 103 Billion dollar surplus in trade with the States last year, it's expected to gow to $120 billion next year. Economically, China's getting everything from the states while giving comparitively nothing in return, and what they are getting they can get juat as simply from Taiwan, Thailand, or any number of other nations. Any economic sanctions would hurt the Chinese themselves more than it would hurt the states. The only stick the Chinese hold over the States right now is North Korea. Admittedly, that is a big stick, but the Chinese are as worried about the North Koreans as the Americans are.

[Gobalopper]

The only reason Bush brought it up was because China probably brought it up in their talks. So it must have been an issue for them or it wouldn't have been mentioned. China wants control over Taiwan just like they now have control over Hong Kong.

And recognizing Taiwan is certainly not a "simple" thing either. China is a much larger country then either Thailand or Taiwan so pissing them off is a much bigger deal. China has over a billion people, Thailand and Taiwan under 100 million. Same goes for GDP and other economic factors.

[Mahdi]

"The only reason Bush brought it up was because China probably brought it up in their talks. So it must have been an issue for them or it wouldn't have been mentioned."

Do you know for a fact that China brought it up in there talks, and threatened war if the USA didn't denounce it? I don't remember reading that anywhere.

"And recognizing Taiwan is certainly not a "simple" thing either. China is a much larger country then either Thailand or Taiwan so pissing them off is a much bigger deal."

"I, the President of the United States, recognize Taiwan as an independant nation." There. Done. Seems pretty simple to me.

Why should bush care if he pisses off the Chinese? He didn't care about pissing off France, Germany, Canada, or any of his other allies, why should the opinion of a brutal dictatorship mean more to him than those nations, especially after all his rhetoric over the last few years about democracy and freedom?

Like I said above, economically it doesn't matter much. The STates are already in a $103 billion dollar deficit when it comes to the PRC, and it's growing. What the States does get from them, they can get just as easily from other places. Any economic actions will harm the PRC more than they would harm the US.

[Gobalopper]

Trade issues are expected to dominate the agenda when the Chinese Premier meets the United States President later today in Washington.

Chinese officials say Wen Jiabao is also looking for assurances from George W Bush that Washington does not support any moves by Taiwan to push for independence.

White House press secretary Scott Mccllelon says Taiwan will be one of the many issues up for discussion.

"The President is likely to engage the Premier on human rights and religious freedom, and we expect the Premier will raise Chinese concerns about Taiwan," he said.

"We have consistently raised our concerns about a number of areas in which China can do more to live up to its international obligations and there has been some progress made and there is more to be done."

The GDP of China is greater then that of France, Germany, and Canada combined. China is also an emerging market so even though today there may be a trade deficit there is a lot of future investment oppurtunities for US companines in China.

[Mahdi]

The referendum is not an independance issue, as the President of Taiwan has stated several times, and that quote mentioned nothing of war should the USA fail to denounce Taiwan.

"The GDP of China is greater then that of France, Germany, and Canada combined. China is also an emerging market so even though today there may be a trade deficit there is a lot of future investment oppurtunities for US companines in China."

True, but right now it wouldn't hurt the States, it would hurt China itself.

Don't you find it hypocritical in the least that Bush, who in virtually every speech he makes talks about how important freedom and civil rights are, how evil dictators are, and how it's America's job to lead the charge in freedom, is supporting a brutal dicatorship over a democratic nation? You don't find that hypocritical at all?

[Gobalopper]

The referendum may not directly be an independence issue but it certainly leads towards that ideal. And the quote from Bush deals with what the leader of Taiwan said and not just the referendum.

And it would hurt the US because there are already investments in China and if the US doesn't get into those markets I'm sure other countries would be more then willing to.

As for if its hypocritical or not I don't see it being that way especially when Bush has said that he wants the status quo in the region which to me does not mean China taking over Taiwan and turning it into a dictatorship. And when you also have the US willing to protect Taiwan from any sort of attacks from China I hardly see the US as supporting China.

[Emperor Harkonnen]

So is this about Taiwan wanting independence from China?

That's a great idea! Why does bush go against that? this has got to be the first time I have ever disagreed with Bush. I thought he had the exact same opinions as me :'(

[Dante]

He should just butt out and mind the business of his own nation. According to the press he isn't even doing a very good job of that so why on earth he wants to try and mind the business of others nations for them is a mystery to me...

Oh no wait, he's a trigger-happy megolomaniac. That's why.

[ordos45]

Well, the U.S. 7th Fleet (It is the 7th right?) is off Taiwan at any given time isn't it? However, if it appears China will invade, I think Bush will withdraw the fleet. You don't go to war with a nation whose nukes can hit America.

[Edric O]

China and the US may have nukes pointed at each other, but underneath the mask of mistrust they are de facto allies. Ultimately, neither China nor the US gives a damn about Taiwan, as long as their economic interests aren't hurt. If China invaded Taiwan, the US would say "shame on you" and then go back to business as usual.

Oh, and there's not even an ideological conflict between China and the US any more. China's economy has been capitalist for some 20 years now...

[ordos45]

Actually we would give a damn, we're its biggest arms supplier. We make a killing off of arming them for a suicidal stand against China.

China may be capitalist, and may be headed towards Democracy even, but it isn't there yet...as the events in Tienamen Square showed.