Castro hands over power

[Edric O]

Yes, it had to happen some time, and I suppose I should be glad that Castro's heath seems to be deteriorating gradually rather than failing all at once.

But, in case you haven't heard it, Fidel Castro handed over power to his brother Raul two days ago - apparently on a temporary basis - while he recovers from a stomach surgery.

Cubans mostly act as if nothing has happened, which is encouraging.

I have my doubts that Castro will make a full recovery, but, if he does, I hope he'll have the good sense to retire and leave his brother in charge. He's too old for this job (not that his brother is much younger), and having the old leader still alive when the new one takes power would ensure a smooth transition.

However, Raul is a temporary solution and everybody knows that. They'd better start thinking what to do after he dies too. Now I'd love to see some democratic reforms while keeping the economic system intact, but that's not going to happen (and if it did, the US would pump billions of dollars into opposition parties).

[Dunenewt]

Well Raul is just the same as Fidel, no real change. It was Raul that first made contact with Che back in the 50s as well.  Raul is in favour of more economic freedom though.

[Edric O]

Apparently Raul is a big mystery (according to the BBC).

But it doesn't matter because he'll be dead within 6-7 years too.

[Dunenewt]

Oh you're so polite Edric.  The Daily Telegraph have a lot about him:

Raul Castro has lived in the shadow of his brother for all of his 75 years but few Cubans doubt the capacity of the man who has been one of the pillars of the regime.

Any exiles harbouring hopes that the regime will crumble when Fidel Castro's rule ends may be bitterly disappointed.

Raul has shared his brother's revolutionary fervour from the start. While he is believed to be open to the sorts of economic reforms that have transformed China, his commitment to communism is beyond doubt.

"Only the Communist Party, as the institution that brings together the revolutionary vanguard and will always guarantee the unity of Cubans, can be the worthy heir of the trust deposited by the people in their leader," he said in June.

Alberto Bayo, who trained the Castro brothers' rebel force in Mexico, said: "We have in Raul a colossus in the defence of revolutionary principles. Raul is Fidel multiplied by two in energy, in inflexibility, in fibre. Raul is tempered steel."

Raul has always been at his brother's side, never afraid to get his hands dirty. He was there on July 26, 1953, at the failed assault on the Moncada barracks that landed the brothers in the prisons of the dictator Fulgencio Batista.

It was not Fidel but Raul who first befriended the Argentine doctor, Ernesto "Che" Guevara, and brought the man who would become the worldwide symbol of the revolution into the Cuban camp.

Raul played a key role in the uprising that toppled Batista in 1959. He was seen by contemporaries as even more ruthless than Fidel and accused of executing more than 100 officers and soldiers of the Batista regime.

His role since has been as the second most powerful figure in the regime. His wife, Vilma Espin, plays the role of Cuba's first lady as Fidel has no wife.

Fidel had clearly been thinking of the future before his illness and his approaching 80th birthday and sought to lift his brother's profile. When Raul turned 75 last month, state media eulogised him as Fidel's successor and guardian of the revolution.

But at his advanced age, Raul does not represent the long-term future of Cuba. He is reported to have been treated for prostate cancer and liver disease.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2006/08/02/wcuba102.xml

[nemafakei]

If anything, it seems that Raul will be worse than Fidel. I'd prefer he handed over power to someone born after the revolution who might be idealistic enough and honest enough to do things properly.

My prediction is that Castro will be back on his feet (full health is not really something you could say of anyone that old!), he will return to command, but will slowly hand over the reins to his brother, before officially retiring in a few months to a couple of years.

[Edric O]

Oh you're so polite Edric.  The Daily Telegraph have a lot about him.

I don't read the Daily Telegraph, nor trust it very much. On this particular subject, though, I see no reason to mistrust their asessment.

Except, of course, that it is not "communism" that Raul and Fidel are committed to - though I'm sure they sincerely believe it is.

In any case, the question is: What happens after Raul?

[Dunenewt]

I get the Daily Telegraph delivered to my door...does that say something about me?

It looks like Raul might launch a crack down on dissidents, as he's not afraid of doing things like that.

[Mihail]

After Raul, eh? Well, Cuba right now has a good(And by that I mean stable) government. They need to keep it that way. Essentially, a police state is a safe state, you don't see Cuba undergoing all of these turmoils that the other first and second world countries are. Its an effective and efficient government.

[Dunenewt]

Its undergoing turmoil at the moment, extreme economic turmoil.  Although the health system is apparently quite good.

[Mihail]

As well as the education system. But I didn't know that Cuba was having severe economic problems... Huh. :O

[nemafakei]

"But I didn't know that Cuba was having severe economic problems..."

It's been blockaded by the US, and the blockade has been extended to all companies who deal in the US. Aside from the cigar industry, that'll kill off most trade. I'm surprised Cuba's not a complete wreck like Haiti, to be honest.

[Mihail]

But surely it has friends and allies in South America? Bolivia, Venezuela.

[Edric O]

Well, Cuba's economy suffered most in the 1990's because it lost the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe as trading partners, but it has been recovering for a few years now.

I get the Daily Telegraph delivered to my door...does that say something about me?

Nothing I didn't already know, ya Tory. :P

It looks like Raul might launch a crack down on dissidents, as he's not afraid of doing things like that.

That would be the mark of a very, very incompetent dictator. You don't launch crack downs on dissidents for no good reason - it's bad PR, especially if you're just getting used to the job.

[nemafakei]

"You don't launch crack downs on dissidents for no good reason"

Thing is, I suspect the US will return to inciting dissent once Fidel is properly out of the way. If this is violent dissent, Raul will have little choice. If it's just peaceful protests, we'll see a little more of Raul's character. I don't think the US will spend its links risking a peaceful protest going off without being repressed. That would do no end of damage to their campaign.

[Edric O]

If Raul is smart enough, he won't do a crack-down - he'll just organize a counter-protest.

[Andrew]

I'm pretty sure Canada trades with Cuba.

Canada and Cuba will join forces to take over USA. USA will be surrounded! We shall be called Canuba! (old joke, sorry).

I doubt much will happen.

[nemafakei]

"I'm pretty sure Canada trades with Cuba."

Well, most *countries* do (theoretically) trade with Cuba - the US embargo is criticised by a UN vote about 147-3 every year - but many *companies* who would otherwise like to don't. Each has to make the choice between two markets: a world superpower or a poorish island in the Caribbean.

[Edric O]

An update on the situation in Cuba:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14202250/

And a fact sheet on Castro's possible successors:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6131369/

[Dante]

What does the USA have against Cuba anyway? I've never really undersood. In the Cold War perhaps this sort of xenophobia and vulture-like attitude would have been sensible, albeit in a paranoid way. But as the situation stands it just looks like the US is trying to squish Cuba out of spite, or in order to have a puppet nation. Another one, that is.

Granted Cuba is under a dictator, but he's no Stalin. The public services are supposed to be fantastic, health and education and all that.

[nemafakei]

"The public services are supposed to be fantastic, health and education and all that."

Precisely.

The problem is that if Cuba looks enviable, the US is afraid that other countries will follow its example. Now, while Cuba may not look much fun to us, but it's places like Colombia that have to be prevented from thinking they can get away with ignoring the US. The blockade has put immense strain on Cuba, and the message is clear: Disobey the US and you will suffer the same. I'm not in the least bit surprised Colombia heeded that warning earlier this year.

The ironic (possibly deliberate) thing is that the blockade strengthens Castro, to an extent: scarcity of resources means more dependance on the powerful. Same with all sorts of places - Vietnam, North Korea... do that sort of damage to a people, and they will place their lives in the care of the toughest nuts about. This also means that the US can point to these countries' poor human rights records. For some countries, this isn't an issue, mind, if they have even worse regimes.