Mentat computation

[SpiceGuid]

Muadib is trapped in a web of possibilities that all lead to an undesirable future.

Whatever path is taken the cumulative effect is equivalent.

So, mathematically speaking, the prescient universe ressembles a magic square, but a connective one.

I have tried and building such a magic web is much easier than i expected:

The entry is North.

Progression is made by following arrows.

Whatever the exit you choose among 3, whatever the path you choose among 4, the cumulative sum is always 17.

The magic web is the shape of a mentat computation.

Assembling individual facts leads nowhere, but letting your thought concurrently flowing along them leads to 17 as an hidden inevitable conclusion.

[Andrew]

Nice. As long as certain paths do not have certain weights associated with them. (the inner arrows have a weight of say 60% (30%each if two) and the outer arrows have 40%)

Thus if the weights are 60(30)/40

2->8 = 4.4

4->6 = 4.8

2->3->5 = 3.5

4->1->5 = 3

7-4-6 is the best path to take if you are looking for the greatest #. It might also depends on the number of paths you take.

But if no weight or number of numbers matters, than every path is the same.

[nemafakei]

I think the idea is that we assume the values given include the probability.

[SpiceGuid]

i have not been clear enough.

there is no associated weight or probability.

every path is total-value-equivalent.

that looks stupid, yet i think that captures well the nature of a "fate" (in this example take 17 as a fate), something as unavoidable as a mentat conclusion.

[Davidu]

( Spice, long time no seen. ::) )

He is quite right. The path of possibilities should be total-valued.

But, spice, you forget one thing: Muad'Dib couldn't change the future because the future wasn't altered by him. He ignited that possible futre, but his role was finished: the fremen would go on with or without him. No matter how great his power was, no matter how influent he was, no matter what he would have done, he was no match to the energies of a whole population. It's fairly easy for a gifted person to set a population in movement, but I have yet seen a person stop such a process all by itsself.

Have you tried to stop an avalanche by yourself? You're taken away... you might "sail" your way through... but the end is inevitable.

Your theory is mathematically correct, but practically unapliable. Fate is generated by humans in an inconscient manner. I understand Muad'Dib's frustration when he saw all the possibilities knowing he couls alter the course but not the outcome. He couldn't control it. Not even LetoII could. On the other hand LetoII used divertion, he tried to control the "fate" indirectly, through subtlety, and with perseverence. The final outcome would still be the same on the long term. The VERY long term: the human race, as any race will eventually die out naturally, and all he did was to prolonge the lifespan of humanity.

At all things the START and the END are all the same.

[SpiceGuid]

hi Davidu.

i hope the new diagram addresses your critics.

the new diagram is the same but more detailed.

the arcs are the operations.

the nodes are the result.

the progression follow arrows.

the whole diagram is an hyper-arc from 0 to 17.

17 is the only possible outcome.

so who walks the diagram does not alter the outcome, he only alters the course.

it's a life-span diagram, it contrasts with game-span diagrams where the aim is usually to maximize the outcome.

also the diagram illustrates how mentats use multiple think-paths to build and reinforce a deduction.

[Davidu]

Are there any books on this?

[SpiceGuid]

the diagram is not from a book, i have created it purposely.

what exists is books about game theory, where it is explained how to select a winner path, that is a path that maximize the final gain.

here is a good introduction to game theory (see game-trees chapter):

http://www.cs.chalmers.se/~rjmh/Papers/whyfp.pdf

then you can consider life as a desire-driven game because life final gain is null :(

[Davidu]

Hmm... the meaning of life...

Well, here at Architecture I've met lots of interesting people, many of whom understand that life is pointless as they lose anyway by dieing.

I don't think like that: I'll do something in my life if only not to get bored until the moment of my death. I'll eventually die, but until then, why shouldn't I live?  ;)

[SpiceGuid]

the game is to trade time for some satisfaction.

i will trade time anyway, so i don't want to trade it for nothing.

i want some satisfaction ;)

[Davidu]

What do you imply by "satisfaction"?  ::)

Yrah... just lose it, live yer life...

[Egeides]

Your definition of "outcome" may not be the same I would use. You seem to say that "outcome" is actually the number of possibilities that were "taken".

For example: 2000kJ of energy was used for actions XYZ.

But the use of these possibilities (quanta of energy perhaps?) can lead to different routes nevertheless, within a same global nexus map.

[SpiceGuid]

@Davidu

i do not mean discovering a new Dinosaur or cold fusion ::)

that would be childish.

i mean intimate satisfaction such as electing a woman and making her life better ;)

EDIT: @Egeides

so, according to you, the diagram is as stupid as saying "there are several ways to spend 17 euros".

and guess what: yes it is.

but that's not the question, the diagram is still related to prescience, because knowing every way to spend your money would make you richer.

[Egeides]

Ah, there's a "detail" I had not catched. But still:

In reality, I do not believe that environment constituted exclusively of these 17 euros and a greater/lesser loss of the useful energy of these 17 euros can occur. Puting your energy at using your bike and running with it on your shoulder does not lead to the same use of energy.

So it seems that in reality we could not consider by default that all branches bring to the same result.

[Caid Ivik]

Still, nobody of you exactly described what is this "result", "final state", "end". Should I expect some hegelian finity or is it about two points in infinite history? Muad'Dib talked much about Djihad and Leto about Arafel, however, their visions had further sight. Define your timescale please, SpiceGuid.

[Davidu]

@ SpiceGuid: Today I just met my "female version".  ;D ;D

What can I say more, man? I can't believe there's someone JUST like me out there.

I hope I'll be smart enough not to waste this chance.

Now... back on topic...

I thinks it's about the lifespan of human species in Dune.

I can't say anything for Spice, though.

[SpiceGuid]

@Davidu

you're right, it covers the whole lifespan rather than a life episode, that's why it can't give a final practical result.

@Caid

the prescient is a Cassandra.

so the end is a catastrophe.

something as disastrous as my wineglass is empty.

the timescale is just the estimated time before the considered catastrophe.

for LetoII that end could be the spreading of lazy genes.

@Egeides

my example was prescience of bankruptcy.

from 17 euros there are several ways to bankruptcy.

prescience is when you know all the potential and all the chances will be exhausted.

the diagram does not apply to bikers, it applies to parachute jumpers.

it's a canonical shape of prescient knowledge.

why do you all want it to be a winner strategy?

it's not a strategy, it's a mentat construction, it's the cathedral of Muadib:

[Caid Ivik]

Catastrophe is just a part of reality; time goes further, and it might turn even worse (based on 2nd Murphy's Law). Perhaps that's why would Paul and Leto rather try to alter the way and not its end itself. Ah, Golden Path  ;D

[Egeides]

Ok, I understand what you bring better now... I saw the first graphic as an explanation of all possible ways. I'll come back to it later though, since I have an essay to do :D

Besides, nice little castle SpiceGuild ;D

edit: And in a while, I'll have two advantages I did not have lately: time to think and write, sleep :)