The nature of prescience

[Anathema]

I've been wondering about this ever since I first started reading the novels. I recently reread GEoD and finally decided to start a topic about it.

As I have figured it out (or tried to), a prescient person can predict the course of events resulting from his own actions, provided that there are no other prescient people involved. Being more skilled at prescience merely allows you to see the chain of events unfold further. The course of the future can be seen as a landscape, other people and their actions are basicly "static". I know it's not exactly the right word- the point is, that as you can predict their reactions to whatever you do with a certain precision. They're subject to manipulation by the oracle, just as inanimate objects like trees or rocks are to us. From the perspective of the oracle, they don't have what we'd call "free will", there's only inertia that can be manipulated by an oracle with enough worldly influence.

As soon as another prescient person enters the picture, the water gets muddled- prescient people can't predict eachother, as soon as the "spheres of influence" of two oracles overlap, the overlapping area (of future chain reactions) cannot be predicted by either.

Thoughts?

[MrFlibble]

I've never seriously tried to understand this, but to me, your explanation looks correct. It seems that Muad'Dib and Leto II could "calculate" all the possible outcomes for any point in time. Oddly enough, Leto II couldn't see the point of his death (or didn't he simply want to see that? - I forgot).

[Egeides]

If I am a better chess player than someone else, he will seem more static to me (though irl players play not only between humans with set pieces, produce from nature, etc.).

So one plays chess (i.e. manages things in life). One who is better plays chess of chess players. One even better chess of chess players of chess players...

But there are differences with chess. For Herbert, there is it seems a clear gap between some "levels", and this knowledge is spiritual (by his account). In this way, it seems to me that the levels are "spiritual" for Frank and that, therefore, there is another class of people who are seers and know above others by direct relation to things -forming those who know and those who don't. And since it is a matter of spiritual levels well "prescience" is this other level - KH being Knower and Perceiver above all, chess player of all.

Frank was apparently influenced by Heidegger, so it might relate here.

[MrFlibble]

And since it is a matter of spiritual levels well "prescience" is this other level - KH being Knower and Perceiver above all, chess player of all.

Somewhat of a paradox, Paul found himself nothing more than a figure on the board, unable to influence the chain of events until his alleged death in the desert (when he became The Preacher) and technically, even after that.

[Anathema]

I've never seriously tried to understand this, but to me, your explanation looks correct. It seems that Muad'Dib and Leto II could "calculate" all the possible outcomes for any point in time. Oddly enough, Leto II couldn't see the point of his death (or didn't he simply want to see that? - I forgot).

Leto II tried to use his prescient ability as little as possible, because otherwise his life would be unbearable. Also Siona, after being tested, was invisible to prescience. I think that was part of his greater goal of breaking humanity out of its grown patterns, introducing people that can't be predicted and can't predict, either.

Egeides, I think that at least part of the reasons why Paul and Leto II were superior in ability to the Guild is that navigators were to cautious. It's not their lesser talent that made them predictable, but the fact that they always chose the safest path.

[MrFlibble]

There was something in the Atreides genes, too. Both Paul and Leto were the results of century-(millennia?)-spanning BG breeding program.

[Anathema]

Well, yeah. However, even though FH had a way of being vague when it comes to such things, one important thing the Bene Gesserit sought in their Kwisatz Haderach (besides the prescience) was a male capable of accessing his ancestral memories. Effectively a male Reverend Mother that they could place on the imperial throne.

I don't deny that there are varying degrees of prescient sight. But it's mentioned in pretty explicit words that Paul couldn't see a Guild steersman or what he was up to. But in this case (the conspiracy involving Edric) the players still had true freedom of action.

When Leto II had acquired a total grip on the universe by killing the source of the spice and rationing the supplies he acquired, the Guild (wich we can assume included all the powerful prescient minds except Leto II) had become politically impotent. Their organisation was bent only on survival and they were totally subverted, meaning that no action they could take would muddle Leto's predictions.

[Egeides]

Somewhat of a paradox, Paul found himself nothing more than a figure on the board, unable to influence the chain of events until his alleged death in the desert (when he became The Preacher) and technically, even after that.

Paul refused the prescience's message and sought another path. Leto II accepted it.

By what Herbert wrote, it seems that Paul was controlled in such a way because his views were too idealistic/do-gooder, and he did not accept the prescience and what it told - this KH perfect/"top" prescience remains what is changeless and anyone is static to it.

As for Siona, independent prescience must make someone unpredictable in probabilistic/bureaucratic ways. Perhaps the cautiousness of the Guild you mentioned is this bureaucratic aspect (they think too "bureaucratically"). One could say that this is to counter despotic rulers controlling others by bureaucracies (machines!!... ahem), but actually it's more twisted as Leto II is himself such a ruler at its worst.

[MrFlibble]

Maybe the access to Other Memory stretching countless millennia back helped better seeing the future? Like giving a greater scope of timelines/events? or are these two aspects of KH unrelated?

[Egeides]

I've just noticed something: what is the relation between prescience and science? My allegory above with chess really refers to chess as science while you're all about prescience. Do you think it changes anything? If not, you make this Dunian prescience you're talking about to be related to science.

[Emperor Harkonnen]

If someone prescient cannot predict the actions of another prescient. For example Leto could not predict the actions of a Guild Navigator, then in theory the Guild Navigators actions could result in a totally different future than the one Leto had predicted. In other words, a Guild Navigator could influence the Golden Path in ways Leto could not see.

[Anathema]

I've just noticed something: what is the relation between prescience and science? My allegory above with chess really refers to chess as science while you're all about prescience. Do you think it changes anything? If not, you make this Dunian prescience you're talking about to be related to science.

scientia = knowledge,

so prescience = knowing beforehand

[MrFlibble]

If someone prescient cannot predict the actions of another prescient. For example Leto could not predict the actions of a Guild Navigator, then in theory the Guild Navigators actions could result in a totally different future than the one Leto had predicted. In other words, a Guild Navigator could influence the Golden Path in ways Leto could not see.

That was quite dangerous, then. There were certainly a lot of Guild Steersmen out there, making the Golden Path highly unstable. How did Leto overcome this trouble?

[gunner154]

I'd see it to be more like playing a game of pool (whatever game there is involving hitting a ball, and see that ball hit other balls). You hit one ball with a cue stick and then see the path taken by the ball on the playing table (like playing a game of Puzzle Bobble. You get the dotted lines that map the path of the firing ball). Perhaps that takes some basic understanding of mechanics. But seeing how it hits other balls and how those other balls move requires far greater understanding of mechanics, perhaps even experience.

However, other balls might not be comfortable with the result of your hitting the first ball with the cue. These balls might be prescient to a certain extent, able to look a certain extent into the outcome you have predicted and the action you have taken to set things in motion. If they are not agreeable, they could alter their course against your prediction in order to achieve a different outcome. The alternative outcome might be very different or very similar. This harks back to the Butterfly Effect in Chaos Theory. However, what they can see as the results of their actions are perhaps limited by their own abilities. You, having greater prescience, would be able to see beyond their actions. The ultimate end product might very well be beyond that which is seen by the individual prescient balls (how odd this analogy is sounding now. And how wrong).

How many Guild Steersman enters the picture is quite simple. The prescient balls can only see the future to a certain extent. These little prescient balls can thus exert a limited influence. The trick for Leto II would be to take a path with an outcome that either disturbs Guild Steersmen the least or prevents them from causing too great a stray from his intended path. Being a greater prescient, Leto II could even predict how the Guild Steersman might alter the course, achieving the Golden Path (the "further outcome" that could not be seen by the Guild Steersmen, which they might inadvertently cause).

However, Siona would be a total grey area for Leto II, because he does not the properties of this pool ball. He would not be able to predict how the ball might react. This is a greater randomising element than Guild Steersmen as he cannot even predict how she might react, as opposed to Guild Steersmen who might be predicted to consciously alter the course with their limited prescience.

[MrFlibble]

I've recently finished re-reading Heretics, and a fact occurred to me that I have overlooked before that Teg also acquired a form of prescience, although it seems to be limited in how far into the future he could probe, and also this ability was not connected to melange in any way. What do you think about that?

[gunner154]

Really? I didn't remember anything like that. Nothing extraordinary about Teg as far as I could remember apart from being a brilliant strategist, and his ghola having superhuman abilities.

[MrFlibble]

Oh, it looks like you've read Heretics quite a long time ago :)

SPOILERS ARE BELOW, btw ;)

I, too, first focused on his "superhuman" strength and speed, but he also got a "sixth sense" of sorts, which allowed him to sense danger in the future, pick up "right" people from the crowd (those who would help him) and finally predict where the worm on Rakis would take Odrade and Sheeana. Oh, and he could see no-ships on Gammu, if I'm not mistaken.

[Egeides]

I've recently finished re-reading Heretics, and a fact occurred to me that I have overlooked before that Teg also acquired a form of prescience, although it seems to be limited in how far into the future he could probe, and also this ability was not connected to melange in any way. What do you think about that?

Herbert pointing out that the best uber-strategists can acquire this prescience?

[MrFlibble]

It was rather his Atreides genes. New abilities sprung out from extreme pressure Teg was forced into by the T-probe.

BTW, it's mentioned somewhere in the beginning of Heretics that the breeding mistresses carefully checked Odrade's offspring and even had two of her children put to death because of her "wild genes".

[gunner154]

Yep. Heretics was about 3 years ago for me. Oh, right, now I remember. He got his super speed before he even got his ghola. Hmm..

I'm trying to remember if there were any differences between Teg and ghola Teg, because some of what you've mentioned do seem very familiar...