Canadian Election 2006 = Conservative Minority

[Andrew]

Thought I would continue this from the controversial thread.

Less than a week!

In response to Nema:

All the polls say that the CPC will win. But polls are usually wrong. Kerry ws supposed to win the  US election.

I hope Harper doesn't win. He's crazy. He reminds me of Bush with his oppostition to abortion, gay rights, public sector and just about everything else (especially how he didn't like ACOA, but then said he did support it to get votes in Atlantic Canada).

Harper is smart as he is not attacking the liberals (or anyone), he's just stating his platform and such, which is winning voters over.

The Liberals are in attack mode. Atatcking everything Harper is and sayign he will abandon everything. I don't beleive it all, but some things like privatization (health care), gay rights and such, Harper will dance around.

I don't necesarily believe he will send troops to Iraq (he might have if he was in power before), as I'm sure he would be kicked out of office by Canadians. I mean Afghanistan is not even secure, so I don't see a point in sending troops to Iraq. The Taliban is still around...

NDP will obviously lose. But they might be able to form an alliance with the winning party (to keep governemt stable and to push there agendas). They allied with the Liberals to pass the budget, and they were able to influence some parts of it (wich was good).

Atlantic Canada (at least PEI) will stay mostly liberal. Of course someone will say that Atlantic Canada doesn't matter, but as far as I remember the last election every seat counted.

I hope to see some independants come into play as we did last year, as they were truly great as they did what their constituants wanted and not what a party told them to do. I'm mostly talking about Chuck Cadman, seemed like a good guy from the interview I saw on CBC News.

Good wiki article here on him.

I know there will be to independants that were liberal/conservative, but they got dropped last week as they were doing some illegal stuff (CPC candidate smuggling in a car lol, forget what the liberal did wrong).

Would be interesting to see a Green party person win so they can get in on the Live Election Debates next election (there would then be 5, compared to 2 in the US ;)).

[nemafakei]

My point was not merely that the NDP will not rival the largest parties, but that the NDP stand to lose a good number of the seats they do have, and will almost certainly make very few gains. (More's the pity). If Layton could pull something strong out at the last minute and the Liberals accelerated down, there would start to be a big swing of liberal seats going to the NDP - but that's unlikely.

The NDP also need to get tougher on their support criteria. PR should be high on the agenda, and the NDP should be readier to actively write policy to be put into law instead of just asking for ministerial assurances, hoping to exert a benevolent influence, and so forth.

Harper and Co seem intent that they're very much a new party and so forth (which technically they are, I suppose), but the people in parliament will not be new, no matter how radical the policy sounds.

[Andrew]

Voting starts tomorrow.

Gonna be very interesting as to what happens.

EDIT:

Time for Cartoons!

Conservative candidate showing that marriage is for procreation only.

Now you could come back and say that "some liberals voted against same sex marriage, so that makes them evilas well!"

True. More on that when I get time.

EDIT: another image

[Andrew]

I would report how Atlantic Canada is doing, but then I would get a $1000 fine.

So I will say that they are doing good.

Damn blackouts.

[Andrew]

Everyone is projecting a Conservative minority government.

Noooooooooooo!!!!!!

Only time will tell who the Conservatives will team up with to form a majority gov.

Oh well. As long as the conservatives don't touch: abortion, gay marriage, personal rights, rack up huge deficits (any at all will be bad), send troops to Iraq or some American quagmire, and if he screws with ACOA I will be pissed.

Seems that Harper was able to buy enough votes with the GST cut and $1200 a year for parents in day care.

[nemafakei]

Interesting. The problem is that even if the tories form a minority government, they'll have a far more united opposition than the Liberals had. If the Liberals, politically closest to the CPC on most issues, start supporting Tory policies, then they'll die of irrelevance. At the looks of it, a conservative government might find itself propped up by the BQ by a slim margin - an uncomfortable position all round.

In fact, I think the nest parliament will be even more divided than the last.

[Andrew]

It probably will be. Definitely gonna be screwed up.

I forgot to add that privatization of health care better not be on Harpers mind.

I bet $5 that the TSX will rise tomorrow. Or go down because of uncertainty.

[nemafakei]

I must say, I don't think Harper's all that crazy. He's just a run of the mill grey-suited Tory. The sort that over here becomes the spokesman for Industry.

Current predictions mean a CPC/NDP vote may squeeze legislation through. What they'd agree on is beyond me, though.

[Edric O]

Time for a German-style Grand Coalition?

[Andrew]

Even if Harper is crazy, with a minority government, I don't think we will see any of it as any crazy bills will get shot down and collapse the government.

I don't think a german style coalition is possible. If everyone teamed up on the conservatives, it would mean a collapse of the government. The liberals+BQ+NDP cant run the country (other than do opposite of what the conservatives want, which would result in government collapse eventually).

But maybe this means the PCP will have to tailor to everyones interest to stay in power.

EDIT:

It will be interesting to see if the Liberals and BQ get enough seats to be able to overthrow the government (or block bills they don't like).

Sweet, the evil liberal candidate Sam Bulte didn't get elected so far. She was taking money from american music and movie corporations so she could introduce laws similarly found in the USA.

[nemafakei]

Either you'll end up with two moderate Tory parties, ideologically suited to a grand coalition, but rhetorically polarised and awkward, or you'll have a completely scuppered government.

I can see a German-style coalition in which the Tories make a show of cleaning up the liberals in a grand gesture of reconciliation. This would mean effectively the two big parties priming themselves for a permanent mutual agreement to alternate power and exchange favours.

The Liberal Party needs destroying, and Layton needs to be quick about it.

[Andrew]

Martin just resigned!

Maybe they can give him a finance minister position still...

[nemafakei]

Final Score:

CON 124

LIB 103

BQ 51

NDP 29

IND 1

Total: 308

Hm. The NDP should support GST cuts if tied to progressive income tax or possibly with GST cuts for essentials. The Liberals under a new leader might support GST cuts outright.

The Bloc is, as I recall, the most sceptical about environmental policies, fearing Quebec might bear the brunt, and a CPC/BQ consensus on federalism issues might work. But that does mean poorer regions risk seriously losing out.

Personally, I think it would be a grave error for Harper to be optimistic at this point. If he promises anything - knowing he lacks a natural ally to form a majority - he deserves to bear the brunt of disappointing the voters, even if his policies are voted down by the other three parties. Other parties have campaigned on opposing manifestos, and, while they should compromise, cannot be expected to go along with Harper (and go against their own platform) for the sake of passing something: by accepting the office of Prime Minister, Harper expresses confidence in his ability to govern with a minority. I think there's a real risk he will call an election in a few years' time (or less!) blaming failures on other parties and expecting to return with a majority. That's a fair claim to make if you have opponenents on two sides undermining you and whichever way you turn you fail, but when your minority government is to the right of the majority, you can either accept that your policies will have to change, or hand the government over to the lefties.

The problem is that in order for the CPC even to get its 124 seats, it had to campaign as a party to the left of many of its candidate's own beliefs. That means that if it is required to compromise further in order to forge new policies, the tories may face a backbench revolt. Which is their own silly fault for campaigning on a manifesto that does not represent the party.

[Gobalopper]

I just hope this means we can finally get electoral reforms passed...

[nemafakei]

Well, the NDP don't have enough clout in parliament to require it, the BQ are lukewarm on it - they would lose out, and in any case, they have higher-priority demands. Neither Liberals nor Tories have expressed much interest as far as I can see... perhaps PR in the Lords, since they may have the odd problem there.

[Andrew]

Day-care rates rising to match Tory cheques

ROFL

I guess those Harper cheques will go to good use... to match increases in daycare costs... which went up because daycare centres knew parents were getting more money from the government...

So we are back to square one.

Also Harper appointed someone to cabinet who wasn't even elected, which was an election promise broken. But that was a month ago.

[Mahdi]

I served Harper at the movie theater a few weeks ago.  Was so spaced out that not only did I not see him when I served him (I just look through the guests) I didn't even notice being surrounded by his very large bodygaurds.