The Next Decade

[Wolf]

Don't get me wrong, Hwi, I think Iran's current government is fairly reprehensible, and I certainly believe that it's dedicated to at least Israel's destruciton, if not Israel's and the United States'.

But as for Russian and China... I really think they'd screw Iran in a heartbeat if given half a chance to do so. All the West has to do to break up that "alliance" is to make it clear to the Russians and the Chinese that they can make more money by abandoning Iran than they can by not. And I think, in a sense, that was always true. The only reason the Russians the Chinese ever entertained positive relations with Iran in the first place is because they truly feared the expansion of the US sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia. Without that vice-like grip on their genitals, I really don't think they can be compelled to burn political capital, or worse, burn money, for Iran's benefit. I mean, put yourself in Iran's place: would you trust Russia and China?

[Edric O]

Don't get me wrong, Hwi, I think Iran's current government is fairly reprehensible, and I certainly believe that it's dedicated to at least Israel's destruciton, if not Israel's and the United States'.

It is an extremely rare thing in international politics for any government to be dedicated to anything other than the preservation of its own power and the occasional expansion of its influence whenever an opportunity arises.

Iran is simply using Israel in the same way that Israel is using Iran: as an external threat to wave in front of its people and make them fall in line behind government policy.

[chatfsh]

All the West has to do to break up that "alliance" is to make it clear to the Russians and the Chinese that they can make more money by abandoning Iran than they can by not. And I think, in a sense, that was always true.

So if that is indeed all the West needs to do to break up that alliance

[Dunenewt]

They're not even siding with it per se, they're just saying to the West, "you can't just do things your way".

[Wolf]

I might have gone too far with "destruction"--certainly in the case of Iran vs. the United States--but I don't think it's too far-fetched to think that Iranian's government, or Iranians in general, would be amenable to the dissolution of the Israeli state.

[Edric O]

So if that is indeed all the West needs to do to break up that alliance

[Dunenewt]

If there is going to be any alliance for Iran, I would say it will most likely be with Turkey, which could severely alienate Israel within the Middle East.

[Caid Ivik]

On the article - well, EU attained a good position, in some aspects many countries too. To copy article's ethnocentrism, Slovakia became rich, perhaps for the first time since the WW2.

On world-changing events - what changes the world? People remain the same. Empires rise and fall, it's just funny how Americans repeated the same error of the Soviets and attacked Afghans. But in other things, the internet got much faster  :)  we're finally in the cyberpunk age.

On Iran - the only problem for other countries to deal with them was that they wanted to deal with Israel as well. As soon as Turkey and Russia finish their deals with Israel, which they invested into, they'll turn to invest to Iran. Raw and human resources will be more important than technology. Israel has not much to offer, but high demands, in this aspect.

On the next decade - we'll see if we make it throuh 2012.

[Dunenewt]

Interesting that the article mentions Huntington's Clash of Civilisations, I wrote an essay on that once.